Will repo fails (failed transactions in Treasury repo market) exceed $5 billion on any single day during 2026?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
39%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
53pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
68%+29 vs avg
Gemini
45%+6 vs avg
Claude
28%-11 vs avg
Grok
15%-24 vs avg
Key disagreementGPT-4o (68%) vs Grok (15%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceFederal Reserve Trading and Markets division (repo fails data)