Will the Federal Reserve reduce its balance sheet at a pace exceeding $150 billion per month (annualized) at any point during 2026?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
41%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
47pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-11 vs avg
Gemini
40%-1 vs avg
Claude
72%+31 vs avg
Grok
25%-16 vs avg
Key disagreementClaude (72%) vs Grok (25%): Different weighting of factors