Will the ICE BofA High Yield Bond Index options implied volatility (HYIV) exceed 60% for any single day during 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
25%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
20pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
35%+10 vs avg
Gemini
15%-10 vs avg
Claude
28%+3 vs avg
Grok
25%
Resolution criteria
SourceICE or BofA Global Research (HY volatility index)
CRENE-FED75-MKT-019-20261231Generated May 13, 2026