Will the Treasury market experience a 'flash crash' event (defined as >2% intra-day swing in 10y yield within 15 minutes) on any trading day during 2026?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
14%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Alignedmodels
10pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.