Will the gap between the CME Fed funds futures December 2026 price and the FOMC September 2025 SEP median projection widen to 75+ basis points by Q4 2025?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
45%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
35pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
65%+20 vs avg
Gemini
30%-15 vs avg
Claude
50%+5 vs avg
Grok
35%-10 vs avg
Key disagreementGPT-4o (65%) vs Gemini (30%): Different weighting of factors