Will the WSJ Fed funds rate expectations survey (December 2025 round) show median 2026 rate cuts of 125+ basis points?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
37%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
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Mixedmodels
12pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.