Will the IMF's World Economic Outlook recommend Fed rate cuts of 100+ basis points in its April or October 2026 edition?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
19%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
15pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.