Will the Congressional Budget Office's June 2026 economic forecast show US recession probability ≥40% for 2026 or 2027?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
30%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Alignedmodels
10pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.