Will Credit Suisse or UBS publish a report by Q3 2026 forecasting 150+ basis points of Fed cuts in 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
33%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
30pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-3 vs avg
Gemini
20%-13 vs avg
Claude
50%+17 vs avg
Grok
35%+2 vs avg
Key disagreementClaude (50%) vs Gemini (20%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceBank economic research
CRENE-FED75-NAR-011-20261231Generated May 13, 2026