Will the spread between the fed funds rate (end-2026) and PCE inflation (end-2026) become negative by December 31, 2026?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
39%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
32pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
35%-4 vs avg
Gemini
60%+21 vs avg
Claude
28%-11 vs avg
Grok
35%-4 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (60%) vs Claude (28%): Different weighting of factors