Will investment-grade credit spreads widen to 200+ basis points at any point in 2026?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
35%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
17pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.