Will the Fed's balance sheet expand by $200+ billion during 2026 (signaling crisis intervention)?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
25%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
30pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
45%+20 vs avg
Gemini
15%-10 vs avg
Claude
28%+3 vs avg
Grok
15%-10 vs avg
Key disagreementGPT-4o (45%) vs Gemini (15%): Different weighting of factors