Will any FOMC voting member dissent in favor of a larger rate cut than the committee decided upon at any 2026 meeting?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
38%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
47pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-8 vs avg
Gemini
25%-13 vs avg
Claude
72%+34 vs avg
Grok
25%-13 vs avg
Key disagreementClaude (72%) vs Gemini (25%): Different weighting of factors