Will the Fed announce a one-time acceleration of balance sheet runoff (QT) pace during 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
27%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
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Alignedmodels
5pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%+3 vs avg
Gemini
25%-2 vs avg
Claude
28%+1 vs avg
Grok
25%-2 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceFederal Reserve policy statements and press releases