Will the Fed decrease the monthly balance sheet runoff cap at any point during 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
45%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
40pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-15 vs avg
Gemini
70%+25 vs avg
Claude
37%-8 vs avg
Grok
45%
Key disagreementGemini (70%) vs GPT-4o (30%): Different weighting of factors