Will the unemployment rate rise by 75 basis points or more cumulatively during any 6-month rolling window in 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
59%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
57pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
60%+1 vs avg
Gemini
65%+6 vs avg
Claude
28%-31 vs avg
Grok
85%+26 vs avg
Key disagreementGrok (85%) vs Claude (28%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceBureau of Labor Statistics monthly Employment Situation release