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Back to clusterPart ofWill the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points or more cumulatively during calendar year 2026?
Event · ECONOMICS

Will the Fed's reverse repo facility (RRP) usage exceed $2.5 trillion on any single day during 2026?

Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
25%probability

4-model average

LOWconfidence

building category history

—stability

loading

Mixedmodels

15pt spread

These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.

Belief trajectory

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Per-model probabilities

GPT-4o
30%+5 vs avg
Gemini
30%+5 vs avg
Claude
28%+3 vs avg
GrokGrok
15%-10 vs avg

Resolution criteria

SourceFederal Reserve H.4.1 weekly balance sheet release
CRENE-FED75-POL-007-20260617Generated May 9, 2026