Will the May 2026 FOMC meeting statement explicitly use the phrase 'further rate cuts' or 'rate cuts ahead'?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
43%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
47pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-13 vs avg
Gemini
40%-3 vs avg
Claude
28%-15 vs avg
Grok
75%+32 vs avg
Key disagreementGrok (75%) vs Claude (28%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceFederal Reserve official FOMC statement (May 2026 meeting)