Will the 2-year Treasury yield fall below 2.0% at any point during 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
28%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
40pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
25%-3 vs avg
Gemini
55%+27 vs avg
Claude
18%-10 vs avg
Grok
15%-13 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (55%) vs Grok (15%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceU.S. Treasury daily yield data or FRED (DGS2)