Will the 2s10s Treasury curve invert (2-year yield > 10-year yield) for 5 or more consecutive trading days during 2026?
Resolves Jun 16, 2026 (38 days)
29%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
15pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
25%-4 vs avg
Gemini
40%+11 vs avg
Claude
28%-1 vs avg
Grok
25%-4 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceFRED Treasury yield data or Bloomberg inversion tracker