Will any Treasury auction (of any maturity) in 2026 register a bid-to-cover ratio below 2.0x?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
28%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
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Alignedmodels
10pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
35%+7 vs avg
Gemini
25%-3 vs avg
Claude
28%
Grok
25%-3 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceU.S. Treasury Fiscal Service auction results