Will the high-yield credit spread (OAS) widen to 500bps or more for 5+ consecutive trading days at any point in 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
40%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
50pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-10 vs avg
Gemini
65%+25 vs avg
Claude
50%+10 vs avg
Grok
15%-25 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (65%) vs Grok (15%): Different weighting of factors