Will the VIX index close above 40 for 3 or more consecutive trading days at any point during 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
23%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
13pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.