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Back to clusterPart ofWill the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points or more cumulatively during calendar year 2026?
Event · ECONOMICS

Will the VIX index close above 40 for 3 or more consecutive trading days at any point during 2026?

Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
23%probability

4-model average

LOWconfidence

building category history

—stability

loading

Mixedmodels

13pt spread

These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.

Belief trajectory

Loading belief trajectory...

Per-model probabilities

GPT-4o
15%-8 vs avg
Gemini
25%+2 vs avg
Claude
28%+5 vs avg
GrokGrok
25%+2 vs avg

Resolution criteria

SourceCBOE VIX closing price data
CRENE-FED75-POL-015-20260916Generated May 8, 2026