Will the S&P 500 decline by 20% or more (peak-to-trough) at any point during 2026?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
31%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
15pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
40%+9 vs avg
Gemini
50%+19 vs avg
Claude
28%-3 vs avg
Grok
25%-6 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceS&P 500 price index (FRED SP500 or Bloomberg)