Will Powell explicitly state at any 2026 press conference that the Fed is in a 'cutting cycle'?
Resolves Sep 15, 2026 (129 days)
59%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
37pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
35%-24 vs avg
Gemini
65%+6 vs avg
Claude
72%+13 vs avg
Grok
65%+6 vs avg
Key disagreementClaude (72%) vs GPT-4o (35%): Different weighting of factors