Will the ISM Services PMI drop below 50 for 2 or more consecutive months during 2026?
Resolves Dec 30, 2026 (235 days)
32%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Alignedmodels
7pt spread
These three readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-2 vs avg
Gemini
35%+3 vs avg
Claude
28%-4 vs avg
Grok
35%+3 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceInstitute for Supply Management monthly Services PMI release