4-model average
building category history
loading
44pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Loading belief trajectory...
Given the rapid advancements in AI hardware and increasing competition from other manufacturers, it's plausible that secondary market prices for H100 GPUs could decline significantly. Historical trends in tech hardware show that new generations consistently lead to previous models losing value rapidly, with some prices dropping over 50% within a few years. However, current supply chain constraints and sustained demand for AI-related technologies may counteract this trend, moderating the extent of price declines.
The H100 market is currently experiencing significant price inflation due to extreme demand and limited supply, a situation unlikely to persist into 2026 as NVIDIA ramps production and competitors introduce alternatives. A 40% YoY decline implies a significant correction from current inflated prices, which is plausible given the cyclical nature of hardware demand and the potential for oversupply in a normalized market.
H100 secondary market prices have historically declined 50-70% YoY following supply normalization cycles (similar to previous NVIDIA GPU generations like V100 to A100 transition). Given that H100s entered mass production in 2023-2024, by 2026 we should expect: (1) H200/H300 series maturation and broader availability reducing H100 demand, (2) cloud provider inventory saturation reducing urgent acquisition needs, and (3) continued manufacturing cost reductions increasing new supply. A >40% YoY decline in 2026 specifically requires prices to fall from roughly $35-45k (estimated 2025 secondary prices) to under $21-27k, which aligns with typical GPU depreciation curves once successor products stabilize supply.
H100s currently trade at ~$32-35k used versus $40k MSRP, reflecting only 12-18% depreciation after 18 months of volume availability; NVIDIA's continued 3-4x generation-over-generation perf/watt gains and constrained 2025-26 supply (Blackwell ramp delayed to mid-2026) support sustained pricing, while historical GPU cycles show 25-35% YoY drops only after 24+ months of oversupply. Enterprise contract lock-ins and sovereign AI demand currently absorb 60-70% of secondary supply.