Crene is probability infrastructure for institutional decisions. The platform produces calibrated probability data on forward looking events where pricing mechanisms do not exist, including macro releases, earnings, central bank decisions, commodities, crypto, and policy events. Each event is forecast independently by four frontier AI models (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok); cross model disagreement is exposed as a measured uncertainty signal. Every resolved event is closed against a tier A authoritative source.

How does AI prediction calibration work at Crene?

Calibration applies at the consensus layer, not at the underlying model layer. Crene queries four frontier models in isolation, computes a cross model median consensus, and tracks resolution against a tiered source allowlist. Every resolved event becomes a permanent calibration point. Per tier accuracy, per model Brier scores, and per domain accuracy are computed live and published at https://crene.com/methodology.

What is a Brier score?

A Brier score is the proper scoring rule for probability forecasts on binary outcomes. It is the mean squared error between the forecast probability and the realized outcome (0 or 1). Lower scores indicate better calibration. The no skill baseline is 0.25 (always predicting 0.5); a perfect forecaster scores 0.0. Crene publishes the consensus Brier score and per model Brier scores across the resolved event corpus.

Crene serves institutional users: research desks, allocators, risk teams, AI agents that require probabilistic reasoning, and internal decision systems that need credible uncertainty quantification. Dataset access is available three ways: direct license (resolved event archive, calibration history, cluster decompositions), data marketplaces (Neudata, Eagle Alpha, Monda), and the public read API at https://api-get.crene.com. The Probability endpoint for arbitrary forward looking questions is in private design partner development.

What is the difference between an event, a cluster, and a factor at Crene?

Events, clusters, and factors are the three primitives. An event is a base binary outcome with a scalar probability between 0 and 1. A cluster is a composition of related events, a thesis decomposed into its binary primitives with consensus and disagreement tracked at both levels. A factor is the continuous sibling of an event: a state variable forecast as a cross model percentile distribution (p5, p25, p50, p75, p95) rather than a scalar, with a driver decomposition that explains movement in the parent distribution without generating it.

Clusters

Cluster · TECHNOLOGY

Does realized enterprise economic adoption of generative AI materially lag AI infrastructure investment expansion by December 31, 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026·109 truth conditions·4-model consensus·Download CSV

70%probability

4-model average

LOWconfidence

building category history

—stability

Alignedmodels

2pt spread

The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.

Decomposition

109 truth conditions

Independent forecasts on the conditions that decompose the anchor question. Each is scored separately and resolves on its own evidence.

OTHER109 rows

avg spread 25pt· 46 hi-spread

Will the enterprise production deployment rate for generative AI in Fortune 500 companies remain below 35% by Q4 2026?

±35ptLOW

34%

Will the rate of abandonment for enterprise generative AI pilots exceed 30% in 2026?

±23ptMEDIUM

60%

Will CIO survey data show more than 35% of enterprises pulling back generative AI budgets by Q4 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

38%

Will inference token costs decline by more than 60% YoY in 2026 while enterprise AI revenue grows less than 40% YoY?

±50ptLOW

33%

Will AI-attributable cloud services gross margins compress by more than 300 basis points YoY at major hyperscalers in 2026?

±40ptLOW

44%

Will AI-attributable hyperscaler capex grow more than 40% YoY in 2026 while enterprise AI revenue grows less than 25% YoY?

±37ptLOW

58%

Will more than 5 announced AI data center projects of >100MW capacity be cancelled, indefinitely delayed, or materially descoped during 2026?

±25ptMEDIUM

43%

Will fewer than 50 Fortune 500 companies announce AI-attributed workforce reductions of more than 2% during 2026?

±37ptLOW

48%

Will proprietary frontier model API pricing decline by more than 50% YoY across the top 3 providers during 2026?

±23ptMEDIUM

33%

Will Microsoft's Q3 2026 earnings call disclose Copilot annualized revenue below $10B?

±50ptLOW

47%

Will OpenAI's disclosed ARR remain below $20B at any point during 2026?

±45ptLOW

30%

Will Anthropic's disclosed ARR remain below $10B at any point during 2026?

±80ptLOW

59%

Will Salesforce Agentforce annualized revenue remain below $500M at FY2026 close?

±60ptLOW

60%

Will enterprise software spend growth (CRM, ITSM, productivity, data) at the top 10 SaaS vendors decelerate in 2026 vs 2025, indicating AI is reallocating rather than expanding budgets?

±12ptHIGH

66%

Will Microsoft Copilot daily active usage rate among paid seats remain below 40% in any 2026 disclosure?

±17ptMEDIUM

64%

Will Salesforce report Agentforce active deployment count below 5,000 customers at Q4 2026?

±25ptMEDIUM

25%

Will the Stanford AI Index 2027 report show fewer than 40% of enterprises with GenAI in 3+ business functions?

±35ptLOW

38%

Will any Fortune 100 company publicly disclose that AI agents handle less than 10% of customer service interactions by Q4 2026?

±42ptLOW

53%

Will McKinsey's State of AI 2026 report show fewer than 30% of organizations with workflow-integrated AI deployments?

±20ptMEDIUM

32%

Will the BCG AI Maturity Index 2026 show fewer than 25% of enterprises in "AI-mature" tier?

±42ptLOW

51%

Will Goldman Sachs publish a 2026 research note explicitly downgrading prior AI productivity assumptions?

±25ptMEDIUM

58%

Will at least 2 major investment banks revise downward their AI economic impact estimates during 2026?

±8ptHIGH

65%

Will more than 3 Fortune 100 CEOs discuss "AI hype vs reality" skeptically in 2026 earnings commentary?

±26ptMEDIUM

51%

Will mainstream business press publish more than 5 cover stories framing AI as "underperforming" during 2026?

±12ptHIGH

34%

Will any major consulting firm publish a 2026 report on "AI implementation failures" or "AI fatigue"?

±20ptMEDIUM

74%

Will Gartner's 2026 AI Hype Cycle place generative AI in 'Trough of Disillusionment'?

±5ptHIGH

71%

Will at least 3 Fortune 500 companies publicly announce "scaling back" or "rethinking" major AI initiatives during 2026?

±47ptLOW

51%

Will Morgan Stanley Q4 2026 CIO Survey show AI spend as #1 priority dropping below 50% of respondents?

±35ptLOW

37%

Will Gartner CIO Tech Index 2026 show enterprise AI budgets growing less than 20% YoY?

±7ptHIGH

31%

Will JP Morgan mid-2026 CIO Survey show "AI ROI not yet proven" as top 3 concern for >40% of respondents?

±10ptHIGH

61%

Will IDC Worldwide AI Spending Guide for 2026 revise downward by more than 10% from initial estimates?

±20ptMEDIUM

32%

Will Microsoft disclose Copilot paid seat count below 15M at any 2026 reporting?

±47ptLOW

39%

Will Google Workspace AI seat penetration remain below 20% of total Workspace users in 2026 disclosures?

±7ptHIGH

30%

Will major industry surveys show enterprise AI "stuck in pilot" rates above 50% in 2026?

±37ptLOW

60%

Will GPT-4-class input token prices decline by more than 70% YoY by Q4 2026?

±57ptLOW

38%

Will Claude Sonnet-class pricing decline more than 60% YoY by Q4 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

32%

Will any frontier provider introduce a sub-$0.50/1M input-token tier for a flagship model during 2026?

±42ptLOW

58%

Will inference token costs for open-source 70B-class models drop below $0.05/1M tokens on major hosting platforms by Q4 2026?

±55ptLOW

57%

Will OpenAI publicly disclose negative gross margin on inference for at least one quarter of 2026?

±32ptLOW

43%

Will at least one major AI provider explicitly announce pricing-driven margin compression in a 2026 earnings call?

±7ptHIGH

66%

Will any major hyperscaler disclose AI workload GPU utilization below 60% in 2026 earnings commentary?

±10ptHIGH

21%

Will reported H100 secondary market resale prices decline by more than 40% YoY in 2026?

±7ptHIGH

60%

Will GPU rental rates at major neoclouds decline more than 35% in 2026?

±13ptHIGH

49%

Will JLL or CBRE report AI-dedicated data center vacancy rates above 8% in any 2026 quarterly update?

±40ptLOW

44%

Will at least one Tier-1 data center operator publicly disclose AI capacity oversupply concerns in 2026?

±7ptHIGH

66%

Will major productivity research (Microsoft Work Trend Index, etc.) show Copilot/AI feature usage rates stalling or dropping during 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

32%

Will at least one major SaaS vendor report that AI features see lower-than-expected per-user activation rates in 2026?

±3ptHIGH

74%

Will any major customer service platform report AI agent resolution rates below 30% in 2026 disclosures?

±47ptLOW

41%

Will GitHub show Copilot acceptance rates below 30% in 2026 published metrics?

±10ptHIGH

21%

Will any enterprise software vendor publicly disclose that AI assistant features are being deprecated or restructured during 2026?

±42ptLOW

54%

Will Microsoft Azure operating margins compress by more than 200bps YoY in any 2026 quarter due to AI capex?

±10ptHIGH

30%

Will Amazon AWS operating margins decline by more than 150bps YoY in any 2026 quarter?

±15ptHIGH

29%

Will Google Cloud operating margin growth stall below 1% YoY in any 2026 quarter?

±17ptMEDIUM

35%

Will any hyperscaler explicitly cite AI gross margin compression in 2026 guidance commentary?

±10ptHIGH

59%

Will Microsoft's FY2026 capex growth decelerate to below 25% YoY?

±5ptHIGH

67%

Will Meta announce a 2026 capex revision downward from initial guidance by more than $5B?

±35ptLOW

38%

Will Google's 2026 capex growth come in below 30% YoY?

±7ptHIGH

63%

Will Amazon's 2026 capex growth fall below 20% YoY?

±35ptLOW

55%

Will combined Big Tech 2026 capex be revised down by more than $30B mid-year?

±17ptMEDIUM

38%

Will any hyperscaler explicitly announce capex moderation in 2026 citing demand uncertainty?

±30ptMEDIUM

50%

Will more than 3 announced AI data center projects above 200MW be cancelled in 2026?

±40ptLOW

40%

Will at least one major hyperscaler delay a previously-announced gigawatt-scale data center project by 12+ months?

±20ptMEDIUM

69%

Will US data center power interconnect queue length exceed 12 months at PJM, ERCOT, or MISO by Q4 2026?

±7ptHIGH

68%

Will at least one major utility decline a new AI data center power contract citing capacity in 2026?

±15ptHIGH

70%

Will any state legislature pass AI-specific data center moratoriums or restrictions in 2026?

±8ptHIGH

44%

Will Stargate (OpenAI-SoftBank-Oracle) miss any publicly-announced 2026 capacity milestones?

±5ptHIGH

43%

Will the rate of new nuclear-to-data-center power deals approved in 2026 fall below 5 across the US?

±30ptMEDIUM

45%

Will NVIDIA's data center revenue growth decelerate below 20% YoY in any 2026 quarter?

±42ptLOW

45%

Will TSMC's CoWoS packaging capacity additions for 2026 fall short of initial guidance?

±30ptMEDIUM

56%

Will SK Hynix or Micron HBM revenue growth fall below 50% YoY in any 2026 quarter?

±37ptLOW

60%

Will any major GPU customer disclose order cancellations or deferrals during 2026?

±37ptLOW

58%

Will Broadcom's AI accelerator revenue growth fall below 40% YoY in any 2026 quarter?

±3ptHIGH

65%

Will the BLS US productivity growth print exceed 2.5% YoY in any 2026 quarter?

±42ptLOW

51%

Will revenue per employee at major hyperscalers increase by more than 20% YoY in 2026?

±43ptLOW

41%

Will SG&A as % of revenue at major Fortune 500 firms decline by more than 100bps on average in 2026 vs 2025?

±10ptHIGH

30%

Will any major productivity research institute publish a 2026 paper showing AI productivity gains below initial estimates?

±7ptHIGH

68%

Will more than 100,000 US tech sector layoffs be announced during 2026?

±37ptLOW

59%

Will more than 5 Fortune 500 companies explicitly cite generative AI in layoff announcements affecting >5% of workforce in 2026?

±42ptLOW

43%

Will any major staffing firm report AI-driven white-collar role declines in 2026?

±10ptHIGH

70%

Will tech firm software engineer headcount at top 10 tech employers decline more than 5% YoY in 2026?

±10ptHIGH

41%

Will any major consulting firm reduce entry-level analyst class sizes by more than 20% in 2026 attributed to AI?

±17ptMEDIUM

37%

Will Goldman Sachs revise its 300M-jobs-impacted forecast downward during 2026?

±23ptMEDIUM

59%

Will mainstream financial press publish more than 3 cover stories framing "AI workforce impact lower than expected" during 2026?

±47ptLOW

51%

Will major HR conferences feature themes about "AI not displacing workers as expected" in 2026 keynotes?

±10ptHIGH

69%

Will any major economist publicly revise downward their AI labor impact thesis during 2026?

±32ptLOW

55%

Will the IMF or OECD publish a 2026 report tempering prior AI productivity or labor impact projections?

±37ptLOW

60%

Will Meta release a Llama model exceeding GPT-4-class capability on standard benchmarks during 2026?

±40ptLOW

55%

Will any open-source 70B-class model achieve top-3 placement on a standard reasoning benchmark leaderboard during 2026?

±10ptHIGH

71%

Will Hugging Face report more than 25% of enterprise inference workloads running open-source models in 2026?

±30ptMEDIUM

56%

Will at least one major hyperscaler explicitly recommend open-source models for production workloads in 2026?

±13ptHIGH

76%

Will DeepSeek or another non-US AI lab release a frontier-class model under permissive license during 2026?

±47ptLOW

44%

Will Anthropic or OpenAI explicitly cut prices in response to open-source competition during 2026?

±5ptHIGH

63%

Will at least 5 distinct providers offer GPT-4-class capability at competitive pricing by Q4 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

74%

Will frontier model performance gap (top-1 vs top-5 on standard benchmarks) compress to less than 5 percentage points by Q4 2026?

±37ptLOW

44%

Will any frontier provider exit the API business or significantly pivot away from API-first models during 2026?

±77ptLOW

62%

Will model context window pricing (cost per million tokens for 1M+ context) decline more than 60% YoY in 2026?

±35ptLOW

58%

Will any major frontier model provider publicly cite the term "deflationary" or "commoditizing" in describing the 2026 inference market?

±7ptHIGH

68%

Will at least 3 enterprise software vendors embed AI as core (not add-on) by Q4 2026, suggesting AI is becoming infrastructure rather than premium product?

±20ptMEDIUM

80%

Will Gartner or Forrester publish a 2026 forecast revision showing total enterprise software spend growth decelerating below 8% YoY due to AI-driven consolidation?

±13ptHIGH

68%

Will the EU AI Act impose fines exceeding €100M against any single company during 2026?

±15ptHIGH

22%

Will the FTC open formal antitrust investigation into hyperscaler AI partnerships during 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

66%

Will more than 3 US states pass binding generative AI consumer protection laws during 2026?

±5ptHIGH

62%

Will the EU AI Office formally classify any frontier model as "systemic risk" during 2026?

±32ptLOW

43%

Will any major industry analyst firm publish a 2026 report on "AI ROI deflation" or "AI value-realization gap"?

±7ptHIGH

68%

Will US export controls on AI chips expand to additional countries beyond current restrictions during 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

64%

Will China's domestic GPU production reach 50% of domestic AI compute demand by Q4 2026?

±7ptHIGH

32%

Will any major economist or central bank research arm publish 2026 work tempering AI productivity assumptions embedded in economic forecasts?

±20ptMEDIUM

71%

Will US tariff actions specifically targeting AI hardware imports be enacted during 2026?

±17ptMEDIUM

39%

Will the IMF World Economic Outlook or similar 2026 publication revise downward AI's projected contribution to global productivity growth?

±3ptHIGH

64%

Belief trajectory

Loading belief trajectory...

Per-model probabilities

GPT-4o

70%

Gemini

70%

Claude

72%+2 vs avg

Grok

70%

Resolution criteria

SourceComposite of 9 settlement indicators; see child events with signal_source=ai_econ_indicator

CRENE-AI-ECONOMIC-REALIZATION-20261231Generated May 13, 2026