Will Google's 2026 capex growth come in below 30% YoY?

Google's capital expenditures grew by over 30% YoY in both 2021 and 2022, but growth slowed to around 18% in 2023 as a response to increasing economic uncertainty and tighter budgets. Current data indicates a trend towards cautious spending, with many tech companies, including Google, adjusting their capex plans due to rising interest rates and inflation pressures. The 30% threshold may be challenging to maintain in a more restrained economic climate.

Google's (Alphabet) capital expenditures have historically shown significant fluctuations, but a sustained capex growth below 30% YoY in 2026 is plausible given the maturing stage of many of its core businesses and the potential for AI infrastructure build-out to moderate after initial surges. For instance, in Q1 2024, capex was $10.7 billion, down from $10.9 billion in Q4 2023, indicating a flattening trend. While AI investments are a key driver, the sheer scale of past investments and the company's efficiency focus suggest that the *rate* of growth might decelerate.

Google's capex base is now large enough ($30B+ estimated for 2025) that achieving 30%+ YoY growth in 2026 would require reaching ~$39B+, which faces headwinds from capex deceleration and efficiency gains. However, intense AI competition and management's

Google's 2025 capex guidance of $75B (up 63% YoY) already embeds the bulk of AI infrastructure buildout; 2026 growth would need to exceed $97.5B to top 30%, yet hyperscale peers like Microsoft are signaling 2026 capex stabilization after 2025 peaks, and semiconductor lead times are lengthening rather than accelerating. Historical capex cycles show 30%+ YoY growth typically lasts 2-3 years before decelerating once utilization normalizes.