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The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
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As of the latest data, the queue lengths at PJM reached approximately 13 months, driven largely by sustained increases in data center demand fueled by cloud computing and AI applications. Additionally, ERCOT and MISO have reported increasing interconnection requests, with ERCOT seeing a growing backlog that could push their processing times beyond 12 months. The ongoing trend of high electricity demand and insufficient infrastructure investment further supports this prediction.
The demand for data center power interconnection is rapidly increasing, driven by AI and cloud computing growth, leading to significant backlogs in all three ISOs. PJM has publicly stated its interconnection queue has grown by 147% in a year, while ERCOT is also experiencing unprecedented demand, and MISO is facing similar challenges with longer wait times for new connections. Without substantial improvements in grid infrastructure and interconnections, exceeding 12-month queues by Q4 2026 is highly probable.
Data center power interconnect queues at major RTOs have grown substantially, with PJM's queue reaching ~30 GW (equivalent to ~18-24 months of processing) as of mid-2024, ERCOT experiencing rapid growth in data center requests, and MISO also seeing elevated demand. Given current queue processing rates of 1-2 GW annually per RTO and continued AI/data center capacity demand, reaching 12+ month queue lengths by Q4 2026 (18 months away) requires only modest additional delays or sustained high application volumes—a threshold that appears likely given existing momentum. The structural factors (interconnection study backlogs, transmission constraint reviews, and grid upgrade timelines) suggest queues will remain elevated or grow further rather than clear substantially.
PJM's current queue averages 32 months for 180 GW of gas+data center projects (FERC Order 2023 filing, July 2024), ERCOT's NOIE clusters show 18-24 month interconnection delays for 45 GW of announced load, and MISO's DPP cycle 2022 study already shows 26-month average completion times for 120 GW; all three grids are experiencing 3-4x load growth from hyperscale campuses versus 2021 baselines while transmission additions lag at 1.2%/yr.