4-model average
building category history
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37pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
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As of 2023, numerous states are increasingly concerned with the environmental impact of data centers, particularly regarding energy consumption and local resource management. For example, in 2022, Washington implemented stricter regulations on energy use for data centers, reflecting a growing trend among states to implement moratoriums or restrictions. Additionally, with the projected growth of AI technology and its reliance on expansive data centers, legislatures may respond to public pressure regarding sustainability, enhancing the probability of moratoriums in 2026.
Growing concerns over energy consumption, water usage, and local infrastructure strain from data centers, amplified by the rapid expansion of AI, are creating political pressure at the state level. Several states have already seen discussions or proposed legislation around data center growth, indicating a trend that is likely to mature into concrete action by 2026 as AI's impact becomes more undeniable and localized. For example, states like Virginia and Oregon have experienced significant data center growth and subsequent environmental and infrastructure debates.
Several states have already explored AI data center restrictions (California's SB 942 discussions, concerns in Nevada and Oregon), and environmental/energy policy momentum is building around compute-intensive facilities. However, successful passage faces significant headwinds: strong tech industry lobbying, competing priorities around AI competitiveness, and the fact that no state has yet enacted such moratoriums despite years of discussion suggest implementation barriers are substantial. The 2026 timeframe is relatively near-term, making passage less likely than if the question covered 2027-2028, though growing energy grid concerns and environmental activism could accelerate action in 1-2 states.
No state passed AI data center moratoriums in 2024 or 2025 despite 14 bills introduced (Virginia HB 2035, Texas SB 2269, California SB 57), with passage rates historically below 10% for targeted tech restrictions; current utility load growth forecasts (EIA 2025: +4.7% annual through 2027) and $50B+ announced hyperscale investments create countervailing economic pressure, while only 3 states have enacted narrower grid-connection delays rather than outright moratoriums.