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The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
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Historical data from similar semiconductor submarkets indicates that YoY revenue growth has often decelerated significantly post-peak demand cycles. Both SK Hynix and Micron have reported strong HBM revenue growth rates exceeding 50% thus far, but with signs of decreasing demand and inventory corrections in the broader semiconductor industry, it is plausible that at least one of these companies will experience a dip below 50% YoY growth in a 2026 quarter. Furthermore, factors like global economic uncertainty and shifting supply chain dynamics are critical to consider.
While HBM demand is currently robust and projected to grow significantly, the YoY growth rate for 2026 will be compared against a potentially very high 2025 base. Given the rapid build-out of HBM capacity by both SK Hynix and Micron, and the inherent cyclicality of the semiconductor industry, a deceleration below 50% YoY in at least one quarter of 2026 is plausible as the market normalizes after initial supply constraints ease.
HBM is experiencing explosive growth from AI demand (estimated 80-100%+ YoY in 2024-2025), but this growth rate is mathematically unsustainable and will decelerate as: (1) the market base expands, (2) supply constraints ease with new capacity from Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron coming online in 2025-2026, and (3) AI chip adoption curves typically follow S-curve patterns with decelerating growth phases. Historical precedent shows semiconductor subsectors rarely maintain >50% YoY growth beyond 3-4 years of boom cycles. With HBM already showing signs of supply normalization in late 2024 and multiple competitors entering the market, at least one 2026 quarter is likely to see YoY growth decelerate below 50%.
HBM revenue growth at both firms is tracking 180-220% YoY in 2024-25 on a still-small base (~$1.2B SK Hynix, ~$0.6B Micron quarterly run-rate) that will face a 2026 base effect of $5-7B per quarter; historical precedent from DRAM and NAND shows quarterly YoY growth dropping below 50% within 6-8 quarters after an initial surge, and the current 2025 HBM supply ramp (SK Hynix targeting 1.6-1.9M/month by Q4-25, Micron 200k-300k/month) already signals a sequential slowdown.