Will the FTC open formal antitrust investigation into hyperscaler AI partnerships during 2026?

With the ongoing scrutiny of technology companies by the FTC and an increasing focus on antitrust issues, especially in the context of AI partnerships, there is a significant chance that formal investigations could be initiated by 2026. Recent statements from FTC Chair Lina Khan emphasize a proactive stance on monopolistic practices, and major partnerships among hyperscalers (such as Microsoft and Google) strengthen the scrutiny. Historical enforcement trends show that similar cases have led to investigations, increasing the likelihood in this rapidly developing sector.

The FTC has already signaled increased scrutiny of Big Tech, particularly regarding AI, with Chair Lina Khan advocating for robust antitrust enforcement. The growing market concentration in AI development and deployment by hyperscalers, coupled with potential anti-competitive behaviors observed in early partnership structures, makes a formal investigation highly probable by 2026. The increasing prominence of AI in critical sectors will likely amplify these concerns and necessitate FTC action.

The FTC under Chair Lina Khan has demonstrated aggressive antitrust enforcement targeting tech giants, with ongoing investigations into major platforms and recent scrutiny of AI partnerships (e.g., Microsoft-OpenAI concerns raised in 2023). Hyperscaler AI partnerships (Microsoft-OpenAI, Google-Anthropic, Amazon-Anthropic) involve vertical integration and potential competitive concerns that align with Khan's stated enforcement priorities. Historical precedent shows the FTC moved from investigations to formal actions within 18-24 months on similar tech matters (Facebook-Instagram, Amazon logistics). The 2026 timeframe provides adequate runway given that preliminary inquiries into these partnerships appear already underway, and political momentum for AI regulation remains bipartisan. The main offsetting factor is that formal investigations require demonstrable anticompetitive effects, and these partnerships' competitive impacts remain contested among economists.

The FTC has signaled continued scrutiny of AI partnerships, with Chair Lina Khan's December 2024 remarks citing “structural concerns” over OpenAI-Microsoft and Google-Amazon deals; however, the 2025 change in administration and new FTC leadership under a Republican chair historically correlates with a 60-70% drop in major tech antitrust filings within 12 months. Precedents show only 2 of 8 hyperscaler partnership reviews since 2020 advanced to formal Part 2 investigations, and current HSR filing data indicate just 11 AI-related deals under review as of Q4 2025.