Crene is probability infrastructure for institutional decisions. The platform produces calibrated probability data on forward looking events where pricing mechanisms do not exist, including macro releases, earnings, central bank decisions, commodities, crypto, and policy events. Each event is forecast independently by four frontier AI models (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok); cross model disagreement is exposed as a measured uncertainty signal. Every resolved event is closed against a tier A authoritative source.

How does AI prediction calibration work at Crene?

Calibration applies at the consensus layer, not at the underlying model layer. Crene queries four frontier models in isolation, computes a cross model median consensus, and tracks resolution against a tiered source allowlist. Every resolved event becomes a permanent calibration point. Per tier accuracy, per model Brier scores, and per domain accuracy are computed live and published at https://crene.com/methodology.

What is a Brier score?

A Brier score is the proper scoring rule for probability forecasts on binary outcomes. It is the mean squared error between the forecast probability and the realized outcome (0 or 1). Lower scores indicate better calibration. The no skill baseline is 0.25 (always predicting 0.5); a perfect forecaster scores 0.0. Crene publishes the consensus Brier score and per model Brier scores across the resolved event corpus.

Crene serves institutional users: research desks, allocators, risk teams, AI agents that require probabilistic reasoning, and internal decision systems that need credible uncertainty quantification. Dataset access is available three ways: direct license (resolved event archive, calibration history, cluster decompositions), data marketplaces (Neudata, Eagle Alpha, Monda), and the public read API at https://api-get.crene.com. The Probability endpoint for arbitrary forward looking questions is in private design partner development.

What is the difference between an event, a cluster, and a factor at Crene?

Events, clusters, and factors are the three primitives. An event is a base binary outcome with a scalar probability between 0 and 1. A cluster is a composition of related events, a thesis decomposed into its binary primitives with consensus and disagreement tracked at both levels. A factor is the continuous sibling of an event: a state variable forecast as a cross model percentile distribution (p5, p25, p50, p75, p95) rather than a scalar, with a driver decomposition that explains movement in the parent distribution without generating it.

Clusters

Cluster · ECONOMICS

Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points or more cumulatively during calendar year 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026·100 truth conditions·4-model consensus·Download CSV

28%probability

4-model average

LOWconfidence

building category history

—stability

Mixedmodels

25pt spread

The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.

Decomposition

100 truth conditions

Independent forecasts on the conditions that decompose the anchor question. Each is scored separately and resolves on its own evidence.

Direct policy path20 rows

avg spread 17pt· 3 hi-spread

Will the Federal Reserve hold an unscheduled emergency FOMC meeting at any point during 2026?

±10ptHIGH

19%

Will any FOMC voting member dissent in favor of a larger rate cut than the committee decided upon at any 2026 meeting?

±57ptLOW

34%

Will the Fed announce a one-time acceleration of balance sheet runoff (QT) pace during 2026?

±5ptHIGH

27%

Will the Fed decrease the monthly balance sheet runoff cap at any point during 2026?

±18ptMEDIUM

47%

Will the unemployment rate rise by 75 basis points or more cumulatively during any 6-month rolling window in 2026?

±26ptMEDIUM

70%

Will the Fed activate its Standing Repo Facility (SRF) on any day during 2026?

±10ptHIGH

29%

Will the Fed's reverse repo facility (RRP) usage exceed $2.5 trillion on any single day during 2026?

±15ptHIGH

22%

Will core CPI (year-over-year) fall below 2.0% in any month during 2026?

±10ptHIGH

30%

Will the May 2026 FOMC meeting statement explicitly use the phrase 'further rate cuts' or 'rate cuts ahead'?

±17ptMEDIUM

34%

Will the 2-year Treasury yield fall below 2.0% at any point during 2026?

±13ptHIGH

19%

Will the 2s10s Treasury curve invert (2-year yield > 10-year yield) for 5 or more consecutive trading days during 2026?

±3ptHIGH

26%

Will the Fed lower the discount rate (primary credit rate) by more than 25 basis points in a single announcement during 2026?

±7ptHIGH

32%

Will any Treasury auction (of any maturity) in 2026 register a bid-to-cover ratio below 2.0x?

±10ptHIGH

28%

Will the high-yield credit spread (OAS) widen to 500bps or more for 5+ consecutive trading days at any point in 2026?

±10ptHIGH

29%

Will the VIX index close above 40 for 3 or more consecutive trading days at any point during 2026?

±10ptHIGH

21%

Will the S&P 500 decline by 20% or more (peak-to-trough) at any point during 2026?

±10ptHIGH

29%

Will Powell explicitly state at any 2026 press conference that the Fed is in a 'cutting cycle'?

±47ptLOW

55%

Will the Fed announce a change to the FOMC statement template or communication framework during 2026?

±40ptLOW

38%

Will the ISM Services PMI drop below 50 for 2 or more consecutive months during 2026?

±10ptHIGH

29%

Will initial jobless claims exceed 400k for 2 or more consecutive weeks at any point during 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

26%

Macro fragility25 rows

avg spread 16pt· 1 hi-spread

Will the unemployment rate rise to 5.5% or higher in any single month during 2026?

±7ptHIGH

30%

Will the Sahm Rule trigger (3-month moving average of unemployment rises 0.5% above 12-month minimum) at any point in 2026?

±10ptHIGH

28%

Will the high-yield CCC-rated bond spread widen to 800 basis points or more for 5+ consecutive trading days at any point during 2026?

±10ptHIGH

28%

Will crude oil (WTI) close above $130/barrel for 10+ consecutive trading days at any point in 2026?

±16ptMEDIUM

17%

Will the Baltic Dry Index fall below 500 points for 20+ consecutive trading days during 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

23%

Will the U.S. investment-grade corporate spread widen to 200 basis points or more for 3+ weeks (15+ trading days) in 2026?

±7ptHIGH

32%

Will the US commercial real estate (CRE) loan delinquency rate reach 6.5% or higher in any quarter of 2026?

±27ptMEDIUM

37%

Will auto loan delinquency rate (60+ days) reach 4.0% or higher in any quarter of 2026?

±3ptHIGH

35%

Will the Federal Reserve conduct an emergency liquidity injection (Fed discount window lending exceeds $50B) in 2026?

±5ptHIGH

27%

Will deposit flows out of US banks exceed $200 billion in any single month during 2026?

±25ptMEDIUM

22%

Will the ISM Services PMI drop below 45.0 for 2+ consecutive months in 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

23%

Will continuing jobless claims reach 2.5 million or higher in any single week during 2026?

±15ptHIGH

24%

Will S&P 500 earnings per share decline by 15% or more in Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025 (year-over-year)?

±12ptHIGH

22%

Will the Federal Reserve's unemployment rate forecast (Summary of Economic Projections) for end-2026 exceed 4.5% in any FOMC statement during 2026?

±47ptLOW

56%

Will commercial real estate prices (MSCI/NCREIF index) decline by 10% or more YoY at any point during 2026?

±12ptHIGH

34%

Will investment-grade bond spreads widen to 180+ basis points for 2+ consecutive weeks in 2026?

±3ptHIGH

34%

Will commercial property prices (CBRE All-Property Index) fall 15% or more YoY at any point in 2026?

±5ptHIGH

27%

Will US home prices (S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index) decline 5% or more YoY in any month of 2026?

±10ptHIGH

29%

Will US corporate debt outstanding decline by $500+ billion in any quarter of 2026?

±25ptMEDIUM

25%

Will the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (core PCE YoY) rise 0.5 percentage points or more in any single month during 2026?

±15ptHIGH

25%

Will the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate fall below 1.5% at any point in 2026?

±15ptHIGH

30%

Will US industrial production decline on a year-over-year basis for 3+ consecutive months in 2026?

±25ptMEDIUM

45%

Will the Federal Reserve conduct an emergency rate cut (unscheduled FOMC action outside regular meetings) in 2026?

±15ptHIGH

17%

Will any major rating agency downgrade US sovereign debt from AAA in 2026?

±17ptMEDIUM

18%

Will the spread between 2-year and 30-year Treasury yields invert (30Y lower than 2Y) for 5+ consecutive trading days in 2026?

±25ptMEDIUM

37%

Cross-central-bank20 rows

avg spread 18pt· 5 hi-spread

Will the ECB cut rates by 100+ basis points cumulatively between January 1 and September 30, 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

25%

Will the PBOC conduct cumulative RRR cuts totaling 150+ basis points between January 1 and August 31, 2026?

±43ptLOW

49%

Will the DXY (US Dollar Index) close above 115 for 20+ consecutive trading days at any point during 2026?

±23ptMEDIUM

15%

Will the Fed and ECB activate an emergency dollar swap line authorization (beyond existing standing facilities) before December 31, 2026?

±10ptHIGH

28%

Will ECB President announce official guidance for rate cuts exceeding 50bps in any single statement between January 1 and June 30, 2026?

±13ptHIGH

20%

Will SNB Chair deliver a speech explicitly endorsing negative rates through end-2026 before August 31, 2026?

±10ptHIGH

18%

Will Riksbank Governor issue forward guidance for rate cuts exceeding 75bps cumulatively before September 30, 2026?

±38ptLOW

55%

Will the G7 Finance Ministers issue a joint statement calling for coordinated easing before November 30, 2026?

±12ptHIGH

34%

Will the ECB cut rates at more than 5 consecutive meetings between January 1 and December 31, 2026?

±5ptHIGH

26%

Will the Fed and Bank of England jointly activate a new GBP/USD swap line before October 31, 2026?

±15ptHIGH

30%

Will the Bank of England cut rates by 125+ basis points cumulatively during 2026?

±5ptHIGH

28%

Will the Norwegian Krone appreciate by 8%+ against the dollar between January 1 and September 30, 2026?

±10ptHIGH

29%

Will the Swedish Krona weaken by 10%+ against the euro between January 1 and August 31, 2026?

±10ptHIGH

30%

Will the People's Bank of China cut the 1-year Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) rate by 25+ basis points before June 30, 2026?

±12ptHIGH

64%

Will the Fed activate its FX Swap Lines with 6+ central banks simultaneously before October 31, 2026?

±10ptHIGH

29%

Will the ECB announce a new Liquidity-providing Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) before May 31, 2026?

±35ptLOW

38%

Will the G10 central bank heads hold an unscheduled emergency meeting before November 30, 2026?

±30ptMEDIUM

25%

Will any G7 central bank announce a unilateral currency intervention before June 30, 2026?

±13ptHIGH

22%

Will the Fed expand its reverse repo facility capacity by 50%+ between January 1 and September 30, 2026?

±13ptHIGH

23%

Will the 2-year swap spread widen to 40+ basis points above Treasury yields at any point during 2026?

±40ptLOW

38%

Market structure20 rows

avg spread 19pt· 4 hi-spread

Will the ICE BofA MOVE index exceed 150 for 15 or more consecutive trading days between January 1 and December 31, 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

25%

Will the 2y10y Treasury yield curve slope invert (10y yield minus 2y yield below -50bps) for any single trading day in 2026?

±30ptMEDIUM

33%

Will the SOFR-IORB spread (SOFR rate minus Fed's Interest on Reserve Balances rate) widen to 20bps or more for 5 or more consecutive trading days in 2026?

±5ptHIGH

27%

Will primary dealers collectively report net short Treasury positions exceeding $50 billion in any single week during 2026?

±10ptHIGH

29%

Will the Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) outstanding balance fall below $200 billion for any single day during Q2 2026?

±5ptHIGH

27%

Will the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index OAS (Option-Adjusted Spread) widen to 150bps or more at any point during 2026?

±10ptHIGH

30%

Will the Bloomberg US Mortgage-Backed Securities Index OAS widen to 120bps or more for 10 or more consecutive trading days during 2026?

±5ptHIGH

27%

Will the CMBX.NA.BBB Index price fall below 80 at any point during 2026?

±10ptHIGH

29%

Will the 10-year Treasury auction tail (highest accepted bid yield minus stop-out yield) exceed 2.5bps at any single auction during 2026?

±47ptLOW

51%

Will the high-yield CCC spread (BofA Merrill Lynch CCC spread) widen to 900bps or more for any 5-consecutive-trading-day period during 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

33%

Will the Bloomberg US High Yield OAS exceed 550bps for 15 or more consecutive trading days during 2026?

±5ptHIGH

27%

Will the TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF) experience a single-day intra-day price swing (high minus low) exceeding 3% on any trading day during 2026?

±17ptMEDIUM

37%

Will the fed funds futures implied rate for Dec 2026 drop below 3.0% at any point during 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

33%

Will the difference between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield widen to 250bps or more for 10 or more consecutive trading days during 2026?

±48ptLOW

31%

Will the Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Investment Grade OAS exceed 180bps for 5 or more consecutive trading days during 2026?

±15ptHIGH

32%

Will repo fails (failed transactions in Treasury repo market) exceed $5 billion on any single day during 2026?

±5ptHIGH

27%

Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) exceed the Fed's IORB target rate by more than 25bps for any 3-consecutive-day period during 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

27%

Will the Federal Reserve reduce its balance sheet at a pace exceeding $150 billion per month (annualized) at any point during 2026?

±10ptHIGH

30%

Will the ICE BofA High Yield Bond Index options implied volatility (HYIV) exceed 60% for any single day during 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

25%

Will the Treasury market experience a 'flash crash' event (defined as >2% intra-day swing in 10y yield within 15 minutes) on any trading day during 2026?

±57ptLOW

27%

Narrative & behavioral15 rows

avg spread 28pt· 5 hi-spread

Will the gap between the CME Fed funds futures December 2026 price and the FOMC September 2025 SEP median projection widen to 75+ basis points by Q4 2025?

±32ptLOW

39%

Will the WSJ Fed funds rate expectations survey (December 2025 round) show median 2026 rate cuts of 125+ basis points?

±17ptMEDIUM

37%

Will at least 5 major economists publish an open letter calling for 100+ basis points of 2026 Fed cuts by August 31, 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

28%

Will the yield curve (10Y-2Y) remain inverted for 8+ consecutive weeks at any point in 2026?

±40ptLOW

45%

Will core PCE fall to 1.8% or lower by June 30, 2026?

±20ptMEDIUM

35%

Will the Bank for International Settlements issue a report by Q3 2026 flagging US monetary policy as 'overly restrictive'?

±17ptMEDIUM

37%

Will the IMF's World Economic Outlook recommend Fed rate cuts of 100+ basis points in its April or October 2026 edition?

±13ptHIGH

22%

Will Goldman Sachs shift its 2026 Fed funds rate forecast downward by 75+ basis points between its December 2024 and July 2026 forecasts?

±17ptMEDIUM

37%

Will the Congressional Budget Office's June 2026 economic forecast show US recession probability ≥40% for 2026 or 2027?

±25ptMEDIUM

38%

Will the Cato Institute or Heritage Foundation publish a joint statement calling for Fed rate cuts by December 31, 2026?

±55ptLOW

29%

Will Credit Suisse or UBS publish a report by Q3 2026 forecasting 150+ basis points of Fed cuts in 2026?

±52ptLOW

44%

Will Fed funds futures for December 2026 show probability >85% of ≥50bps cuts by April 30, 2026?

±57ptLOW

48%

Will the spread between the fed funds rate (end-2026) and PCE inflation (end-2026) become negative by December 31, 2026?

±15ptHIGH

30%

Will investment-grade credit spreads widen to 200+ basis points at any point in 2026?

±17ptMEDIUM

35%

Will the Fed's balance sheet expand by $200+ billion during 2026 (signaling crisis intervention)?

±20ptMEDIUM

28%

Belief trajectory

Loading belief trajectory...

Per-model probabilities

GPT-4o

40%+12 vs avg

Gemini

15%-13 vs avg

Claude

32%+4 vs avg

Grok

25%-3 vs avg

Key disagreementGPT-4o (40%) vs Gemini (15%): Different weighting of factors

Resolution criteria

Sourcefederalreserve.gov FOMC statements, calendar year 2026

CRENE-FED-CUTS75-20261231Generated May 13, 2026