China's population declined for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, with the birthrate hitting a record low, according to official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The population decreased by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, a more significant drop than the 2024 decline.

Births in China plummeted to 7.92 million in 2025, a 17% decrease from the 9.54 million births recorded in 2024. Simultaneously, deaths rose to 11.31 million, up from 10.93 million the previous year, the NBS reported. The country's birthrate fell to 5.63 births per 1,000 people. The death rate of 8.04 per 1,000 people was the highest since 1968.

Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, noted that the number of births in 2025 was comparable to that of 1738, when China's population was approximately 150 million. This decline has deepened concerns about the country's ageing population, shrinking workforce, and potential long-term economic repercussions.

The falling birthrate and rising death rate reflect a complex interplay of factors. China's strict "one-child policy," implemented from 1979 to 2015, had a lasting impact on family size preferences. Although the policy was relaxed to allow two children per family in 2016 and then three children in 2021, its effects continue to be felt. High costs of living, particularly in urban areas, coupled with demanding work schedules and limited childcare options, deter many couples from having more children. Furthermore, increasing educational and career opportunities for women have led to delayed marriage and childbearing.

The demographic shift poses significant challenges for China's economic future. A shrinking workforce could lead to labor shortages and increased wage costs, potentially impacting the country's manufacturing competitiveness. An ageing population also places a strain on social security and healthcare systems, requiring increased government spending.

The Chinese government has implemented various measures to encourage births, including tax breaks, extended maternity leave, and subsidized childcare. However, the effectiveness of these policies remains to be seen. Experts suggest that addressing the underlying economic and social factors that discourage childbearing is crucial to reversing the demographic decline. Further developments are expected as the government continues to monitor the situation and explore additional policy interventions.