The debate over the existence of an "AI bubble" intensified recently, with tech leaders like Mark Zuckerberg acknowledging signs of instability in the AI financial landscape. However, a more nuanced perspective suggests that the situation is not a single bubble, but rather a series of distinct bubbles forming across different layers of the AI ecosystem, each with its own trajectory and potential for collapse.

While OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates expressed concerns about overexcited investors and inflated valuations, they also maintained a belief in AI's transformative potential. This apparent contradiction highlights the complexity of the situation. Instead of a uniform collapse, the AI market is likely to experience a staggered correction, with some segments proving more resilient than others.

The AI ecosystem can be broadly divided into three layers, each with unique economic characteristics and risk profiles. The most vulnerable layer consists of companies that repackage existing AI models, such as OpenAI's API, with user-friendly interfaces and limited added functionality. These "wrapper companies" face significant challenges in establishing defensible market positions and are likely to be the first to experience a downturn. Their business model hinges on readily available technology, making them susceptible to competition and diminishing returns.

The implications of this multi-bubble scenario are significant for investors, businesses, and policymakers. Investors need to carefully evaluate the underlying fundamentals of AI companies, paying close attention to their competitive advantages and long-term sustainability. Businesses should avoid over-investing in superficial AI applications and instead focus on developing core AI capabilities that create lasting value. Policymakers need to adopt a balanced approach that encourages innovation while mitigating the risks associated with speculative investment. The future of AI depends on a clear understanding of these distinct layers and their respective vulnerabilities.