Global markets have undergone a significant realignment in the past decade, driven by political decisions that have reshaped trade patterns and exacerbated inequalities worldwide. Economist Branko Milanovic's upcoming book, "The Great Global Transformation: National Market Liberalism in a Multipolar World," analyzes these shifts and their potential future implications.

Milanovic's research, drawing on data from the World Bank and other sources, indicates that globalization in the late 20th and early 21st centuries fueled unprecedented income growth for both previously impoverished populations, particularly in China, and the wealthiest individuals globally, especially in the West. However, a significant portion of the population in developed nations experienced income stagnation or decline during this period. This stagnation has contributed to a sense of economic insecurity and resentment, fueling nationalist sentiments.

The book argues that this income stagnation, coupled with a perceived lack of opportunity, has created fertile ground for nationalist ideologies to take root. Milanovic posits that the pursuit of unchecked economic growth, often measured by GDP, has prioritized the accumulation of wealth at the top, leaving many behind. This has led to a backlash against globalization and a resurgence of nationalism, as people seek protection and identity within their national borders.

The implications for businesses are considerable. The rise of nationalism can lead to increased protectionism, trade barriers, and restrictions on foreign investment. Companies operating in global markets face the challenge of navigating these shifting political landscapes and adapting their strategies to accommodate nationalistic policies. This may involve re-evaluating supply chains, prioritizing domestic production, and tailoring products and services to meet the specific needs and preferences of individual nations.

Looking ahead, the interplay between globalization and nationalism is likely to remain a defining feature of the global economy. Businesses will need to be agile and adaptable to succeed in this complex and evolving environment. Milanovic's work suggests that a more equitable distribution of wealth and a focus on inclusive growth are essential to mitigating the forces driving nationalism and fostering a more stable and sustainable global economy. The challenge lies in finding a balance between the benefits of global integration and the need to address the concerns of those who feel left behind.