Israel is closely monitoring the ongoing protests in Iran, a nation it views as a significant adversary, but is unlikely to directly intervene to instigate regime change, according to former officials and analysts. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has long considered Iran, particularly its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as a major threat to global security, drawing parallels to Nazi Germany.

The two countries engaged in a brief but intense conflict last June, during which Israel, with limited support from the United States, targeted Iranian military and nuclear facilities, while Iran retaliated with ballistic missile strikes against Israel. Despite the potential benefits Israel might see in the fall of the current Iranian government, a direct intervention is considered improbable unless it is part of a broader, U.S.-led operation or in direct response to an Iranian attack on Israel.

This cautious approach stems from the significant risks of retaliation against Israel, potentially leading to a renewed war. The complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, marked by sectarian divisions and proxy conflicts, further complicates any potential Israeli intervention. Iran's influence extends throughout the region, with ties to various armed groups and political factions in countries like Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Any direct Israeli action could trigger a wider conflict, drawing in these regional actors and destabilizing the already volatile region.

Israel's security concerns are also deeply rooted in Iran's nuclear program. The international community, including Israel, has long been concerned about Iran's nuclear ambitions, fearing that it could lead to the development of nuclear weapons. While Iran maintains that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, such as energy production and medical research, Israel views it as an existential threat.

The United States, a key ally of Israel, has been engaged in diplomatic efforts to curb Iran's nuclear program through the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal. However, the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018 under the Trump administration, reimposing sanctions on Iran. The Biden administration has expressed interest in reviving the JCPOA, but negotiations have stalled.

The current protests in Iran, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini while in police custody, represent a significant challenge to the Iranian government. However, analysts believe that the protests, while significant, are unlikely to lead to an immediate collapse of the regime. The Iranian government has a history of suppressing dissent and maintaining its grip on power through force.

The situation remains fluid, and Israel will likely continue to monitor developments in Iran closely. The potential for escalation remains a concern, and any miscalculation by either side could have serious consequences for the region and the world.