All reference records India as the Third Growth Pole European Rearmament AI Labor Transition Empire by Default Warsh Fed Rate Path AI Economic Realization AI Content Dominance US GDP Directly Attributable to AI Systems, 2030 S&P 500 close, year-end 2026 US 10Y Treasury Yield, year-end 2026 All themes AI content (84) AI labor (77) AI productivity (64) Defense capacity (24) Demographics (7) Dollar system (8) Fiscal capacity (17) Growth poles (32) Inflation (14) Markets (61) Other (129) Rates path (61) Inspect an assumption (578) Will India become the world's third-largest economy by nominal GDP before 2030? Will India sustain real GDP growth above 6% annualized from 2026 through 2035? Will India's listed equity market capitalization exceed $10T by 2035? Will India become one of the top three global IPO markets by cumulative proceeds from 2026 through 2035? Will foreign portfolio ownership of Indian listed equities remain above 15% through 2035? Will manufacturing reach at least 20% of Indian GDP by 2035? Will India capture at least 10% of global smartphone exports by 2030? Will India become a top-five global exporter of electronics goods by 2035? Will India complete or operationalize more than 25,000 km of national expressways by 2035? Will India add more than 500GW of non-fossil power capacity by 2035? Will India process more than 50% of global real-time digital payment transactions in 2030? Will India have over 1B internet users by 2030? Will at least three Indian-headquartered technology companies exceed $250B market capitalization by 2035? Will India become a top-three global market for AI software and cloud demand by 2035? Will India create more than 100M net non-farm jobs from 2026 through 2035? Will female labor-force participation in India exceed 45% by 2035? Will India maintain investment-grade sovereign ratings from all three major agencies through 2035? Will India materially liberalize capital-account access for foreign institutional investors before 2035? Will India remain strategically aligned with both Western technology supply chains and non-aligned foreign policy through 2035? Will India experience a major balance-of-payments, banking, or sovereign-financing stress episode before 2035? India nominal GDP in 2035 India real GDP growth annualized 2026-2035 India listed equity market capitalization in 2035 Manufacturing share of Indian GDP in 2035 India goods exports in 2035 India non-fossil power capacity in 2035 India internet users in 2030 India annual real-time digital payment transactions in 2030 India general government debt-to-GDP in 2035 Will at least 20 European NATO members spend 3% or more of GDP on core defense in both 2029 and 2030? Will Germany spend 3% or more of GDP on defense in both 2029 and 2030? Will France spend 3% or more of GDP on defense in both 2029 and 2030? Will Poland spend 4% or more of GDP on defense in both 2029 and 2030? Will aggregate European NATO defense spending exceed $650B annually by 2030? Will Europe produce at least 2 million 155mm artillery shells annually by 2030? Will European defense manufacturers deliver at least 1,000 new main battle tanks or equivalent heavy armored vehicles between 2026 and 2030? Will European shipyards deliver at least 20 major naval combatants to European NATO states between 2026 and 2030? Will Europe establish at least three new large-scale missile or air-defense production lines by 2030? Will joint European procurement account for more than 35% of European defense equipment procurement by 2030? Will the EU or a European coalition issue joint defense debt or a common defense financing instrument exceeding 250B EUR before 2030? Will European NATO states field at least 300,000 high-readiness troops by 2030? Will Germany field one fully equipped combat-ready heavy division by 2030? Will European NATO members collectively maintain 90 days or more of critical ammunition stockpiles by 2030? Will the United States reduce permanently stationed troop levels in Europe below 50,000 before 2030? Will European NATO members assume primary responsibility for conventional deterrence on NATO eastern flank by 2030? Will Russia remain under major EU sanctions through 2030? Will Russia rebuild enough conventional capability to be assessed by NATO as a direct large-scale military threat to Europe by 2030? Will a major European NATO country elect a government that materially reverses defense spending commitments before 2030? Will European defense programs deploy autonomous drones, counter-drone systems, and AI-enabled targeting tools as standard procurement categories by 2030? European NATO aggregate defense spending in 2030 Number of European NATO members spending at least 3% of GDP on defense in 2030 Germany defense spending as percent of GDP in 2030 France defense spending as percent of GDP in 2030 Poland defense spending as percent of GDP in 2030 European annual 155mm artillery shell production capacity in 2030 European defense-industrial revenue in 2030 Total EU or European common defense financing committed by 2030 European NATO high-readiness force capacity in 2030 US permanently stationed troop levels in Europe in 2030 Russia defense spending in 2030 Will more than 30% of Fortune 500 companies deploy AI based task assignment systems for knowledge workers by 2028? Will Microsoft Copilot or equivalent AI assistant reach over 100M daily active enterprise users by 2028? Will any major consulting firm reduce partner to analyst ratios by over 30% citing AI productivity by 2029? Will AI code generation tools write over 50% of new production code at any FAANG company by 2028? Will enterprise spending on AI supervision and management tools exceed $50B annually by 2029? Will any Fortune 100 company appoint a Chief AI Officer who outranks the CHRO by 2028? Will over 20% of US job postings for white collar roles specify AI proficiency as a requirement by 2028? Will any major US bank eliminate over 25% of its analyst workforce citing AI replacement by 2029? Will any S&P 500 company report that AI systems make over 50% of its routine business decisions by 2029? Will the median US white collar worker receive more of their daily work tasks and performance feedback from an AI system than from their human manager by 2029? Will any Ivy League university launch a degree program in AI human workplace collaboration by 2028? Will demand for project management certifications decline by over 25% from 2025 peak by 2029? Will over 30% of US corporate training budgets shift to AI literacy programs by 2028? Will any US state mandate AI supervision literacy in K through 12 curriculum by 2029? Will coding bootcamp enrollment decline by over 30% from 2024 peak by 2028? Will any accreditation body recognize AI verified skill assessments as equivalent to human evaluated credentials by 2029? Will the wage premium for a 4 year college degree in the US decrease by over 15% from 2024 levels by 2029? Will over 50% of Fortune 500 companies remove degree requirements for entry level white collar positions by 2028? Will any AI tutoring system match human tutoring outcomes in a controlled study with over 1000 participants by 2028? Will enrollment in US law schools decline by over 15% from 2024 levels by 2029? Will the US lead the world in AI workplace supervision adoption by enterprise deployment rate by 2029? Will China deploy AI workplace supervision in state owned enterprises faster than US private sector by 2029? Will EU regulations significantly slow AI workplace supervision adoption relative to the US by 2029? Will any country explicitly ban AI workplace supervision in specific sectors by 2029? Will US companies with high AI adoption show over 10% higher labor productivity growth than their sector peers by 2029? Will AI workplace supervision standards become a trade barrier issue in US EU relations by 2029? Will India emerge as the largest provider of AI supervision training data and labeling services by 2028? Will any multinational implement different AI supervision policies for US vs EU employees by 2028? Will the ILO or OECD publish formal guidelines on AI workplace supervision standards by 2028? Will AI supervised remote work increase US company hiring in developing countries by over 20% by 2029? Will the productivity gap between AI augmented and non augmented US workers exceed 3x in any profession by 2029? Will differential AI adoption correlate with measurable increases in US regional economic inequality by 2029? Will any US company face civil rights complaints for AI supervision bias in task assignment by 2029? Will workers over 55 show more than double the rate of AI related job displacement compared to workers under 35 by 2029? Will rural US counties show more than double the lag in AI workplace adoption compared to urban counties by 2028? Will the income Gini coefficient for US white collar workers increase by over 5% from 2024 levels by 2029? Will the unemployment or underemployment gap between English speaking and non-English speaking US workers widen by more than 5 percentage points in sectors with high AI adoption by 2029? Will any US government program fund AI workplace transition assistance with over $1B annual budget by 2029? Will the gender pay gap differ by over 5 percentage points between AI augmented and non AI professions by 2029? Will US disability rights organizations file over 5 ADA complaints about AI workplace tools by 2028? Will any US federal court rule that an AI system can be held liable as a supervisor under employment law by 2029? Will the EEOC issue formal guidance on AI based performance evaluation and termination decisions by 2028? Will any US state pass legislation requiring human override rights for AI workplace supervision by 2029? Will a class action lawsuit against AI based employee monitoring systems result in a settlement exceeding $100M by 2030? Will the US Department of Labor update FLSA regulations to address AI supervised work arrangements by 2029? Will any major US employer face OSHA investigation for AI driven productivity demands causing worker health issues by 2029? Will EU AI Act enforcement actions against US companies for workplace AI supervision exceed 10 cases by 2029? Will any US professional licensing board restrict AI supervision of licensed professionals by 2029? Will Congress introduce legislation specifically addressing AI workplace supervision with over 20 cosponsors by 2028? Will any US workers compensation claim successfully argue AI supervision as a contributing factor to workplace injury by 2029? Will a major US white collar union with over 10K members form specifically in response to AI workplace automation by 2029? Will US white collar unemployment in professional and business services exceed 5% at any point before 2029? Will any major US tech company with market cap over $100B implement a 4 day work week citing AI productivity gains by 2029? Will the ratio of US managers to individual contributors in tech companies decrease by over 20% from 2025 levels by 2029? Will SAG AFTRA or WGA negotiate AI supervision clauses in their next contract renewals by 2028? Will US average weekly hours worked in professional services decrease by over 5% from 2025 baseline by 2029? Will any Fortune 500 company publicly disclose that AI systems generate over 50% of employee performance reviews by 2028? Will a strike at a US company with over 5K employees cite AI supervision as a primary grievance by 2029? Will US MBA program applications decline by over 15% from 2025 peak citing AI management disruption by 2029? Will the median US white collar salary premium over blue collar decrease by over 10% from 2025 levels by 2029? Will US labor productivity growth exceed 3% annually for 2 consecutive years before 2030? Will AI driven productivity add over $1T to US GDP above pre AI trend by 2030? Will the US experience a net increase in total employment despite AI automation through 2029? Will S&P 500 net profit margins reach all time highs above 13% driven by AI by 2029? Will the Federal Reserve explicitly cite AI productivity in monetary policy communications by 2028? Will AI related tax revenue become a distinct CBO scoring category by 2029? Will any G7 country implement a tax specifically on AI generated revenue or AI labor substitution by 2029? Will US business investment in AI exceed investment in traditional IT infrastructure by 2028? Will the US experience negative GDP growth where AI displacement is cited as a contributing factor by 2030? Will UBI pilots specifically triggered by AI workplace disruption launch in over 3 US cities by 2029? Will the average span of control at US tech companies increase by over 50% from 2025 levels by 2029? Will any Fortune 500 company eliminate middle management layers citing AI supervision capabilities by 2029? Will more than 10% of large US companies use AI for hiring decisions without human final approval by 2029? Will the percentage of US remote workers primarily monitored by AI exceed 40% by 2028? Will any US company with over 50K employees operate with fewer than 5 hierarchical levels using AI coordination by 2029? Will AI generated OKRs and performance goals become the default at over 20% of US tech companies by 2028? Will freelance and contract work exceed 40% of US professional services labor by 2029? Will any major consulting firm launch a service where AI manages client engagements end to end by 2029? Will new US business formations by solo AI augmented founders exceed 500K annually by 2029? Will the average time from onboarding to full productivity decrease by over 40% due to AI training systems by 2029? Will over 30% of US workers report preferring AI supervision over human supervision by 2029? Will AI surveillance stress become a top 5 workplace concern in Gallup surveys by 2028? Will US worker trust in AI decision making exceed trust in middle management by 2029? Will over 50% of Gen Z workers prefer AI based task assignment over human assignment by 2028? Will the concept of right to human management enter mainstream US political discourse by 2029? Will worker anxiety about AI replacement exceed anxiety about outsourcing in US surveys by 2028? Will any US city experience a protest of over 10K people against AI workplace automation by 2029? Will AI supervisor terminology appear in over 100 major US media articles per month for 3 consecutive months by 2028? Will any major employer report AI supervision reducing employee turnover by over 20% by 2029? Will worker satisfaction scores diverge by over 10 points between AI supervised and human supervised teams by 2029? Will AI handle over 50% of first line customer service interactions at US banks by 2028? Will AI generated legal briefs be submitted in over 10% of US federal court cases by 2029? Will AI achieve FDA clearance for independent diagnosis without physician oversight in any specialty by 2029? Will AI generated journalism constitute over 20% of output at any top 25 US news organization by 2028? Will AI systems manage over 30% of US hedge fund AUM with limited human oversight by 2029? Will AI teaching assistants handle over 30% of undergraduate hours at any top 50 US university by 2029? Will AI supervised drug discovery produce over 5 FDA approved drugs by 2030? Will any US government agency deploy AI for over 50% of internal policy analysis by 2029? Will AI managed supply chains outperform human managed ones by over 15% on cost at any Fortune 500 manufacturer by 2029? Will AI systems author over 10% of US patent applications by 2029? Will any AI agent system reliably manage a team of over 10 humans on real project deliverables by 2028? Will AI systems achieve over 90% accuracy on complex project scheduling benchmarks by 2028? Will any AI system pass a Turing test for workplace management communication by 2028? Will enterprise AI agent platforms support fully autonomous workflow orchestration as GA by 2028? Will AI inference costs decrease by over 90% from January 2025 levels by end of 2028? Will any AI system demonstrate reliable planning with under 20% deviation on 30 day project timelines by 2029? Will multimodal AI agents capable of screen observation and tool use reach over 10M enterprise users by 2028? Will any AI model score above the 95th percentile on CPA, bar, and medical licensing exams simultaneously by 2028? Will real time AI meeting summarization reach over 80% accuracy in enterprise deployments by 2027? Will any AI system reliably detect and resolve interpersonal team conflicts in workplace settings by 2029? US white collar unemployment rate 2029 Fortune 500 AI supervision adoption rate 2028 US labor productivity growth annualized 2026-2029 Management to IC ratio change in US tech sector by 2029 AI enterprise software spending 2028 US median white collar wage growth 2026-2029 annualized Share of US job postings requiring AI proficiency 2028 US corporate training budget shift to AI literacy 2028 AI augmented worker productivity premium 2029 US MBA program enrollment change from 2025 baseline AI agent task completion reliability 2028 Enterprise AI inference cost per 1M tokens 2028 AI code generation acceptance rate in enterprise 2028 Multimodal AI agent enterprise deployments 2028 AI meeting summarization accuracy 2027 Fortune 500 Chief AI Officer adoption rate 2028 S&P 500 net profit margin 2029 Consulting firm partner to analyst ratio change 2029 AI customer service automation rate at US banks 2028 Enterprise AI agent platform market size 2028 US professional services weekly hours change 2029 Freelance share of US professional services labor 2029 AI augmented solo founder business formations 2029 US worker preference for AI supervision 2029 What percentage of US Gen Z workers will report that AI tools meaningfully changed their job tasks, per major workforce surveys, by 2029? US income Gini for white collar workers change 2029 Coding bootcamp enrollment change from peak 2028 US law school enrollment change from 2024 2029 AI related job displacement rate workers over 55 vs under 35 Rural urban AI workplace adoption gap 2028 US states with AI supervision legislation 2029 EEOC AI performance evaluation complaints 2028 EU AI Act workplace enforcement actions vs US companies 2029 AI workplace class action settlement total 2030 US federal AI workplace supervision bill cosponsors 2028 What is the measured labor productivity premium (%) in firms that have adopted AI supervision at scale compared to their non-adopting peers by 2029? Average span of control change at US tech companies 2029 AI project scheduling benchmark accuracy 2028 AI 30-day project timeline deviation rate 2029 US labor productivity GDP contribution from AI 2030 Net US employment change despite AI automation 2029 AI hiring without human final approval rate 2029 Worker anxiety about AI vs outsourcing gap 2028 G7 countries with AI labor tax 2029 US cities with AI triggered UBI pilots 2029 AI onboarding to productivity time reduction 2029 Companies using AI for 50%+ routine decisions 2029 China SOE AI supervision deployment rate 2029 US white collar salary premium over blue collar change 2029 AI patent application share of US filings 2029 By 2029, has the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) established a Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) code for roles primarily focused on managing, training, or auditing enterprise scale AI systems? By 2028, have at least three distinct 'no code' or 'low code' AI powered development platforms each achieved over $500 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR)? By 2030, has a major US federal agency (e.g., SSA, IRS, VA) publicly documented a major AI implementation that resulted in >$100M in annual cost savings and announced the reallocation of those savings to fund new or expanded public facing s What is the average percentage reduction in time spent by US primary care physicians on administrative tasks, attributed to AI powered tools like ambient scribes? In the top quartile of US public companies by self-reported AI investment, what is the average ratio of annual wage bill growth to annual profit (EBITDA) growth between 2025 and 2029? Will at least five AI native US companies founded after 2024 reach $1B+ annual revenue each while collectively employing or contracting over 5,000 US workers by 2030? By 2029, has the median seed stage capital required for software as a-service (SaaS) startups to reach their first $1 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) fallen by at least 40% compared to the 2022-2023 baseline? By 2030, have at least 25% of US public high schools formally adopted an AI powered tutoring platform for a core subject (e.g., Math, Writing) that is used by a majority of their students? Will the USD remain >50% of global FX reserves through 2050? Will a BRICS settlement currency handle >10% of global trade by 2040? Will the US experience a sovereign debt crisis before 2045? Will USD SWIFT share fall below 30% before 2045? Will China nominal GDP surpass the US before 2040? Will India GDP surpass Japan + Germany combined before 2035? Will the US be in a major trade war (>25% tariff, >3yr) before 2040? Will the EU form a fiscal union (joint debt >5% EU GDP) before 2040? Will AI raise US productivity >3% annualized (5yr sustained) before 2050? Will the US maintain >20% advanced node semiconductor production through 2040? Will the US produce >50% of frontier AI models (top-10) through 2035? Will a non-US company hold #1 market cap before 2040? Will the US maintain net immigration >500k/yr through 2040? Will US life expectancy surpass 82yr by 2040? Will US fertility rate fall below 1.2 before 2040? Will US federal debt exceed 200% GDP before 2045? Will US interest payments exceed 30% of tax revenue before 2035? Will the US implement a federal VAT before 2040? US share of global nominal GDP in 2035 US share of global nominal GDP in 2050 US real GDP growth annualized 2025-2035 China real GDP growth annualized 2025-2035 India nominal GDP 2035 USD share global FX reserves 2035 USD share global FX reserves 2050 CNY share global FX reserves 2035 US debt to GDP 2035 US debt to GDP 2050 US interest payments % GDP 2035 US share global patent filings 2035 US share top-100 companies by market cap 2035 Global AI market revenue 2035 US fertility rate 2035 US net immigration annual avg 2025-2035 US working age population 2040 SPX level 2035 UST10Y yield 2035 US corporate profit margins S&P 500 2035 Will the September 2026 SEP median imply a year-end 2026 federal funds rate above the June 17 target range? Will at least 10 SEP participants in September project a year-end 2026 rate above the June 17 target range? Will the September 2026 SEP still include individual dots in substantially the same format as prior SEPs? Will Warsh decline to submit an individual dot in the September 2026 SEP? Will any FOMC statement after June 17 explicitly describe inflation risks as tilted to the upside? Will any FOMC statement after June 17 restore explicit forward-guidance language about likely future policy moves? Will Warsh skip or materially shorten a scheduled post-meeting press conference during 2026? Will the September 2026 SEP show a higher median 2026 year-end funds rate than the June SEP? Will the December 2026 SEP show a higher median 2026 year-end funds rate than the June SEP? Will the FOMC statement after any remaining 2026 meeting remove or soften language about labor-market downside risk? Will Warsh explicitly say in a press conference that policy is not sufficiently restrictive? Will Warsh explicitly say in a press conference that a rate cut is not the Committee's base case? Will the Fed minutes from any remaining 2026 meeting report that multiple participants favored a hike? Will the Fed minutes from any remaining 2026 meeting report that multiple participants favored a cut? Will headline CPI exceed 4.5% year over year in any month from June through December 2026? Will core PCE exceed 3.2% year over year in any month from June through December 2026? Will headline PCE remain at or above 3.5% year over year for three consecutive monthly releases in H2 2026? Will WTI crude oil close above $95 per barrel for at least 10 consecutive trading days in H2 2026? Will the U.S. national average gasoline price exceed $4.25 per gallon for four consecutive weeks in H2 2026? Will the 5-year breakeven inflation rate exceed 3.0% on any trading day in H2 2026? Will University of Michigan one-year inflation expectations exceed 5.0% in any monthly release in H2 2026? Will core CPI exceed 3.5% year over year in any month from June through December 2026? Will supercore services inflation remain above 4.0% year over year in any H2 2026 release? Will shelter CPI remain above 4.0% year over year in any H2 2026 release? Will core goods CPI print positive year over year for at least three consecutive months in H2 2026? Will import prices rise by at least 3.0% year over year in any H2 2026 release? Will average hourly earnings growth exceed 4.3% year over year in any H2 2026 release? Will the Employment Cost Index exceed 4.0% year over year in Q3 2026? Will the New York Fed one-year inflation expectations measure exceed 4.5% in any H2 2026 release? Will the Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker exceed 5.0% in any H2 2026 release? Will headline CPI fall below 3.5% year over year before December 31, 2026? Will core PCE fall below 2.7% year over year before December 31, 2026? Will the unemployment rate stay at or below 4.3% in every monthly release from June through December 2026? Will nonfarm payroll growth average at least 150,000 over any three-month window in H2 2026? Will initial jobless claims remain below 250,000 in every weekly release during Q3 2026? Will real GDP growth exceed 2.0% annualized in either Q2 or Q3 2026? Will the Sahm Rule trigger at any point during 2026? Will ISM Manufacturing PMI print above 50 for at least three consecutive months in H2 2026? Will the unemployment rate exceed 4.6% in any monthly release before year-end 2026? Will nonfarm payrolls print below 75,000 in any H2 2026 monthly release? Will job openings in JOLTS fall below 7 million in any H2 2026 release? Will the labor-force participation rate decline by at least 0.3 percentage points from its June 2026 level by year-end? Will real disposable personal income decline month over month in at least two H2 2026 releases? Will retail sales decline month over month in at least two H2 2026 releases? Will consumer confidence fall to a new 2026 low in H2 2026? Will Q3 2026 real GDP growth print below 1.0% annualized in the advance estimate? Will fed funds futures price at least 25bp of cumulative 2026 hikes for 10 consecutive trading days in H2 2026? Will the 2-year Treasury yield close above 4.50% on any trading day in H2 2026? Will the 10-year Treasury yield close above 5.00% on any trading day in H2 2026? Will the 2s10s Treasury curve invert by at least 50bp at any point in H2 2026? Will the S&P 500 decline at least 10% peak-to-trough during H2 2026? Will high-yield option-adjusted spreads exceed 450bp for five consecutive trading days in H2 2026? Will the MOVE index close above 130 for five consecutive trading days in H2 2026? Will the 30-year fixed mortgage rate exceed 7.5% for four consecutive weeks in H2 2026? Will financial conditions tighten by at least 50bp in a major U.S. financial conditions index during H2 2026? Will the dollar index close above 102 for at least 20 consecutive trading days in H2 2026? Will gold close above $4,800 per ounce on any trading day in H2 2026? Will the Nasdaq 100 decline at least 12% peak-to-trough during H2 2026? Will bank credit growth slow to below 2.0% year over year in any H2 2026 release? Will commercial real estate loan delinquencies reach a new 2026 high in H2 2026? Will at least one of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, or Bank of America publish a base case calling for a 2026 Fed hike by September 30, 2026? Will a major economist survey show the median respondent expecting a 2026 Fed hike at any point in H2 2026? Will at least five major banks publish year-end 2026 Fed rate forecasts above the June 17 target range by October 31, 2026? Will any FOMC voting member publicly warn that inflation expectations risk becoming de-anchored during H2 2026? Will President Trump publicly criticize Warsh or the Federal Reserve over rate policy after June 17, 2026? Will a major financial news outlet describe the Fed's 2026 stance as 'hawkish' or 'higher for longer' in a headline after June 17? Will a major financial news outlet describe Warsh as attempting a 'regime change' at the Fed during 2026? Will a major sell-side research note compare Warsh's policy style to Alan Greenspan's during 2026? Will prediction markets assign at least 40% probability to one or more Fed hikes in 2026 for 10 consecutive days? Will prediction markets assign at least 40% probability to one or more Fed cuts in 2026 for 10 consecutive days after June 17? Will the dominant market narrative shift back toward cuts before the September FOMC meeting? Will the dominant market narrative remain hold-or-hike through the September FOMC meeting? Will at least one former Fed Chair or former Fed Vice Chair publicly criticize Warsh's communication strategy during 2026? Will at least one former Fed Chair or former Fed Vice Chair publicly defend Warsh's communication strategy during 2026? Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range at any remaining 2026 meeting? Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range by 50bp or more cumulatively after June 17, 2026? Will the FOMC hold rates unchanged at all four remaining 2026 meetings? Will the FOMC cut rates at any remaining 2026 meeting? Will the upper bound of the federal funds target range end 2026 at 4.00% or higher? Will the upper bound of the federal funds target range end 2026 below 3.50%? Will any 2026 FOMC vote after June include a formal dissent in favor of tighter policy? Will any 2026 FOMC vote after June include a formal dissent in favor of easier policy? Will the July 2026 FOMC meeting result in a rate hike? Will the September 2026 FOMC meeting result in a rate hike? Will the October 2026 FOMC meeting result in a rate hike? Will the December 2026 FOMC meeting result in a rate hike? Will the FOMC make its first post-June rate move in the direction of a hike rather than a cut? Will the FOMC end 2026 with a more restrictive target range than the one in effect after the June 17 meeting? Will any of Warsh's announced Fed review workstreams publish formal findings or recommendations before December 31, 2026? Will the Fed announce a formal change to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy during 2026? Will the Fed announce a change to its inflation-targeting framework during 2026? Will the Fed announce a material change to its balance-sheet operating framework during 2026? Will any FOMC voting member publicly call for changing the primary inflation data source used in policy communication? Will Warsh publicly defend a less transparent or less forward-guided communication style in official remarks after June 17? Will the Fed announce changes to the frequency, format, or content of post-meeting press conferences during 2026? Will the Fed announce changes to the SEP publication process during 2026? Will the Fed announce changes to the dot plot during 2026? Will Warsh publicly criticize the dot plot or SEP process in official remarks during 2026? Will Jerome Powell cast a dissenting vote while remaining on the Board during 2026? Will any Fed Governor publicly criticize Warsh's communications approach during 2026? Will the enterprise production deployment rate for generative AI in Fortune 500 companies remain below 35% by Q4 2026? Will the rate of abandonment for enterprise generative AI pilots exceed 30% in 2026? Will CIO survey data show more than 35% of enterprises pulling back generative AI budgets by Q4 2026? Will inference token costs decline by more than 60% YoY in 2026 while enterprise AI revenue grows less than 40% YoY? Will AI-attributable cloud services gross margins compress by more than 300 basis points YoY at major hyperscalers in 2026? Will AI-attributable hyperscaler capex grow more than 40% YoY in 2026 while enterprise AI revenue grows less than 25% YoY? Will more than 5 announced AI data center projects of >100MW capacity be cancelled, indefinitely delayed, or materially descoped during 2026? Will fewer than 50 Fortune 500 companies announce AI-attributed workforce reductions of more than 2% during 2026? Will proprietary frontier model API pricing decline by more than 50% YoY across the top 3 providers during 2026? Will Microsoft's Q3 2026 earnings call disclose Copilot annualized revenue below $10B? Will OpenAI's disclosed ARR remain below $20B at any point during 2026? Will Anthropic's disclosed ARR remain below $10B at any point during 2026? Will Salesforce Agentforce annualized revenue remain below $500M at FY2026 close? Will enterprise software spend growth (CRM, ITSM, productivity, data) at the top 10 SaaS vendors decelerate in 2026 vs 2025, indicating AI is reallocating rather than expanding budgets? Will Microsoft Copilot daily active usage rate among paid seats remain below 40% in any 2026 disclosure? Will Salesforce report Agentforce active deployment count below 5,000 customers at Q4 2026? Will the Stanford AI Index 2027 report show fewer than 40% of enterprises with GenAI in 3+ business functions? Will any Fortune 100 company publicly disclose that AI agents handle less than 10% of customer service interactions by Q4 2026? Will McKinsey's State of AI 2026 report show fewer than 30% of organizations with workflow-integrated AI deployments? Will the BCG AI Maturity Index 2026 show fewer than 25% of enterprises in "AI-mature" tier? Will Goldman Sachs publish a 2026 research note explicitly downgrading prior AI productivity assumptions? Will at least 2 major investment banks revise downward their AI economic impact estimates during 2026? Will more than 3 Fortune 100 CEOs discuss "AI hype vs reality" skeptically in 2026 earnings commentary? Will mainstream business press publish more than 5 cover stories framing AI as "underperforming" during 2026? Will any major consulting firm publish a 2026 report on "AI implementation failures" or "AI fatigue"? Will Gartner's 2026 AI Hype Cycle place generative AI in 'Trough of Disillusionment'? Will at least 3 Fortune 500 companies publicly announce "scaling back" or "rethinking" major AI initiatives during 2026? Will Morgan Stanley Q4 2026 CIO Survey show AI spend as #1 priority dropping below 50% of respondents? Will Gartner CIO Tech Index 2026 show enterprise AI budgets growing less than 20% YoY? Will JP Morgan mid-2026 CIO Survey show "AI ROI not yet proven" as top 3 concern for >40% of respondents? Will IDC Worldwide AI Spending Guide for 2026 revise downward by more than 10% from initial estimates? Will Microsoft disclose Copilot paid seat count below 15M at any 2026 reporting? Will Google Workspace AI seat penetration remain below 20% of total Workspace users in 2026 disclosures? Will major industry surveys show enterprise AI "stuck in pilot" rates above 50% in 2026? Will GPT-4-class input token prices decline by more than 70% YoY by Q4 2026? Will Claude Sonnet-class pricing decline more than 60% YoY by Q4 2026? Will any frontier provider introduce a sub-$0.50/1M input-token tier for a flagship model during 2026? Will inference token costs for open-source 70B-class models drop below $0.05/1M tokens on major hosting platforms by Q4 2026? Will OpenAI publicly disclose negative gross margin on inference for at least one quarter of 2026? Will at least one major AI provider explicitly announce pricing-driven margin compression in a 2026 earnings call? Will any major hyperscaler disclose AI workload GPU utilization below 60% in 2026 earnings commentary? Will reported H100 secondary market resale prices decline by more than 40% YoY in 2026? Will GPU rental rates at major neoclouds decline more than 35% in 2026? Will JLL or CBRE report AI-dedicated data center vacancy rates above 8% in any 2026 quarterly update? Will at least one Tier-1 data center operator publicly disclose AI capacity oversupply concerns in 2026? Will major productivity research (Microsoft Work Trend Index, etc.) show Copilot/AI feature usage rates stalling or dropping during 2026? Will at least one major SaaS vendor report that AI features see lower-than-expected per-user activation rates in 2026? Will any major customer service platform report AI agent resolution rates below 30% in 2026 disclosures? Will GitHub show Copilot acceptance rates below 30% in 2026 published metrics? Will any enterprise software vendor publicly disclose that AI assistant features are being deprecated or restructured during 2026? Will Microsoft Azure operating margins compress by more than 200bps YoY in any 2026 quarter due to AI capex? Will Amazon AWS operating margins decline by more than 150bps YoY in any 2026 quarter? Will Google Cloud operating margin growth stall below 1% YoY in any 2026 quarter? Will any hyperscaler explicitly cite AI gross margin compression in 2026 guidance commentary? Will Microsoft's FY2026 capex growth decelerate to below 25% YoY? Will Meta announce a 2026 capex revision downward from initial guidance by more than $5B? Will Google's 2026 capex growth come in below 30% YoY? Will Amazon's 2026 capex growth fall below 20% YoY? Will combined Big Tech 2026 capex be revised down by more than $30B mid-year? Will any hyperscaler explicitly announce capex moderation in 2026 citing demand uncertainty? Will more than 3 announced AI data center projects above 200MW be cancelled in 2026? Will at least one major hyperscaler delay a previously-announced gigawatt-scale data center project by 12+ months? Will US data center power interconnect queue length exceed 12 months at PJM, ERCOT, or MISO by Q4 2026? Will at least one major utility decline a new AI data center power contract citing capacity in 2026? Will any state legislature pass AI-specific data center moratoriums or restrictions in 2026? Will Stargate (OpenAI-SoftBank-Oracle) miss any publicly-announced 2026 capacity milestones? Will the rate of new nuclear-to-data-center power deals approved in 2026 fall below 5 across the US? Will NVIDIA's data center revenue growth decelerate below 20% YoY in any 2026 quarter? Will TSMC's CoWoS packaging capacity additions for 2026 fall short of initial guidance? Will SK Hynix or Micron HBM revenue growth fall below 50% YoY in any 2026 quarter? Will any major GPU customer disclose order cancellations or deferrals during 2026? Will Broadcom's AI accelerator revenue growth fall below 40% YoY in any 2026 quarter? Will the BLS US productivity growth print exceed 2.5% YoY in any 2026 quarter? Will revenue per employee at major hyperscalers increase by more than 20% YoY in 2026? Will SG&A as % of revenue at major Fortune 500 firms decline by more than 100bps on average in 2026 vs 2025? Will any major productivity research institute publish a 2026 paper showing AI productivity gains below initial estimates? Will more than 100,000 US tech sector layoffs be announced during 2026? Will more than 5 Fortune 500 companies explicitly cite generative AI in layoff announcements affecting >5% of workforce in 2026? Will any major staffing firm report AI-driven white-collar role declines in 2026? Will tech firm software engineer headcount at top 10 tech employers decline more than 5% YoY in 2026? Will any major consulting firm reduce entry-level analyst class sizes by more than 20% in 2026 attributed to AI? Will Goldman Sachs revise its 300M-jobs-impacted forecast downward during 2026? Will mainstream financial press publish more than 3 cover stories framing "AI workforce impact lower than expected" during 2026? Will major HR conferences feature themes about "AI not displacing workers as expected" in 2026 keynotes? Will any major economist publicly revise downward their AI labor impact thesis during 2026? Will the IMF or OECD publish a 2026 report tempering prior AI productivity or labor impact projections? Will Meta release a Llama model exceeding GPT-4-class capability on standard benchmarks during 2026? Will any open-source 70B-class model achieve top-3 placement on a standard reasoning benchmark leaderboard during 2026? Will Hugging Face report more than 25% of enterprise inference workloads running open-source models in 2026? Will at least one major hyperscaler explicitly recommend open-source models for production workloads in 2026? Will DeepSeek or another non-US AI lab release a frontier-class model under permissive license during 2026? Will Anthropic or OpenAI explicitly cut prices in response to open-source competition during 2026? Will at least 5 distinct providers offer GPT-4-class capability at competitive pricing by Q4 2026? Will frontier model performance gap (top-1 vs top-5 on standard benchmarks) compress to less than 5 percentage points by Q4 2026? Will any frontier provider exit the API business or significantly pivot away from API-first models during 2026? Will model context window pricing (cost per million tokens for 1M+ context) decline more than 60% YoY in 2026? Will any major frontier model provider publicly cite the term "deflationary" or "commoditizing" in describing the 2026 inference market? Will at least 3 enterprise software vendors embed AI as core (not add-on) by Q4 2026, suggesting AI is becoming infrastructure rather than premium product? Will Gartner or Forrester publish a 2026 forecast revision showing total enterprise software spend growth decelerating below 8% YoY due to AI-driven consolidation? Will the EU AI Act impose fines exceeding €100M against any single company during 2026? Will the FTC open formal antitrust investigation into hyperscaler AI partnerships during 2026? Will more than 3 US states pass binding generative AI consumer protection laws during 2026? Will the EU AI Office formally classify any frontier model as "systemic risk" during 2026? Will any major industry analyst firm publish a 2026 report on "AI ROI deflation" or "AI value-realization gap"? Will US export controls on AI chips expand to additional countries beyond current restrictions during 2026? Will China's domestic GPU production reach 50% of domestic AI compute demand by Q4 2026? Will any major economist or central bank research arm publish 2026 work tempering AI productivity assumptions embedded in economic forecasts? Will US tariff actions specifically targeting AI hardware imports be enacted during 2026? Will the IMF World Economic Outlook or similar 2026 publication revise downward AI's projected contribution to global productivity growth? Will over 10% of papers submitted to top US academic journals be flagged for AI generation by 2028? Will any major US university ban AI generated content in dissertations by 2028? Will AI co authored research papers exceed 20% of total submissions at any top 10 science journal by 2029? Will AI generated literature reviews become standard practice at over 30% of US research institutions by 2029? Will a retraction crisis caused by AI generated fraudulent data affect over 100 published papers by 2029? Will AI generated textbook content exceed 20% of new US educational publishing by 2029? Will the NIH or NSF require AI content disclosure in all grant applications by 2028? Will AI generated patent applications exceed 5% of total USPTO filings by 2029? Will any US medical journal retract over 20 papers for undisclosed AI content generation in a single year by 2029? Will AI generated student essays become undetectable by current plagiarism tools at over 50% false negative rate by 2027? Will a major content authentication standard reach over 100M monthly verified pieces of content by 2029? Will any major browser ship native AI content detection indicators by 2028? Will the US government mandate digital provenance metadata for all federal communications by 2029? Will content authentication become a billion dollar market segment by 2029? Will over 50% of US adults report difficulty distinguishing AI from human content in surveys by 2028? Will blockchain based content verification systems reach over 10M active users by 2029? Will any US state require AI content disclosure for political advertising by 2028? Will AI content detection accuracy degrade to below 70% against adversarial generation techniques by 2028? Will digital identity verification for proving human authorship exceed $500M in revenue by 2029? Will any major social platform implement mandatory cryptographic content provenance for all uploads by 2029? Will content farm revenue from AI generated articles exceed $10B annually in the US by 2028? Will AI content generation reduce average marketing department headcount at US companies by over 20% by 2029? Will the freelance writing market in the US contract by over 30% from 2024 levels by 2028? Will AI generated email marketing exceed 50% of total commercial email volume in the US by 2028? Will any major US publisher publish an AI generated book that reaches a bestseller list by 2029? Will AI content generation tools reach over $20B in annual US revenue by 2028? Will graphic design employment in the US decline by over 15% from 2024 levels by 2029? Will AI generated corporate reports exceed 30% of total SEC submission text volume by 2029? Will the average cost of producing a marketing blog post decrease by over 80% due to AI by 2028? Will any major ad network refuse to serve ads alongside AI generated content by 2029? Will AI content generation consume over 5% of total US electricity by 2030? Will the cost of generating AI content decrease by over 95% from 2025 levels by 2028? Will open source AI models capable of producing human quality text proliferate to over 100 actively maintained projects by 2028? Will AI generated content storage requirements exceed human generated content storage on major cloud providers by 2029? Will any country impose compute restrictions specifically targeting AI content generation by 2029? Will edge device AI content generation reach quality parity with cloud models by 2028? Will AI model training data contamination from AI generated content become a documented problem reducing model quality by 2028? Will real time AI video generation at broadcast quality become commercially available for under $100 per month by 2029? Will AI content generation APIs process over 1 trillion tokens per day across all providers by 2028? Will the environmental footprint of AI content generation become a regulated compliance issue in any US state by 2029? Will any top 25 US news organization publish over 50% AI generated articles by 2029? Will AI generated news articles be cited in a US court case as unreliable evidence by 2028? Will the Associated Press or Reuters adopt AI as primary author for routine news reporting by 2028? Will US local news outlets using AI generated content exceed 500 by 2029? Will advertising revenue for human authored journalism decline by over 25% from 2025 levels by 2029? Will any Pulitzer Prize submission be disqualified for undisclosed AI content generation by 2029? Will AI generated misinformation be cited as a contributing factor in a US election dispute by 2028? Will the FTC issue rules requiring disclosure of AI generated content in commercial communications by 2028? Will subscriber growth at premium human authored publications accelerate as a counter trend by 2029? Will any US newspaper layoff over 50% of its editorial staff citing AI content generation by 2029? Will the US pass federal legislation requiring AI content disclosure by 2029? Will AI generated content be ruled non copyrightable by a US federal appeals court by 2029? Will total copyright infringement lawsuits against AI companies exceed $10B in claimed damages by 2029? Will the NYT v OpenAI case or equivalent result in a precedent setting ruling on AI training data by 2028? Will any US state ban AI generated content in public school educational materials by 2029? Will the FCC issue rules on AI generated content in broadcast media by 2029? Will AI generated deepfake pornography legislation pass at the federal level by 2028? Will any US regulatory body establish a legal definition of AI generated content by 2028? Will publishers successfully negotiate licensing fees from AI companies exceeding $1B total by 2029? Will any country implement a right to know if content is AI generated, enforceable across platforms by 2029? Will over 50% of new posts on any major US social media platform be AI generated by 2028? Will Meta, X, or TikTok require AI content labeling for all posts on their US platforms by 2028? Will synthetic influencer accounts with over 1M followers exceed 100 on Instagram or TikTok by 2028? Will any major social platform report that AI generated comments exceed human comments in volume by 2029? Will bot traffic exceed 50% of total US web traffic as measured by Cloudflare or Akamai by 2028? Will Reddit, Quora, or Stack Overflow implement AI content quotas or bans by 2028? Will any US social platform lose over 20% of daily active users citing AI content saturation by 2029? Will human verified content platforms emerge with over 10M monthly active users by 2029? Will over 30% of dating app profiles in the US use AI generated photos or bios by 2028? Will any major platform introduce a paid tier specifically for human only content feeds by 2029? Will Google report that over 30% of indexed web pages are primarily AI generated by 2028? Will AI generated SEO spam cause Google to fundamentally restructure its ranking algorithm by 2028? Will organic search traffic to human authored content sites decline by over 30% from 2025 levels by 2029? Will AI overview answers in Google Search reduce click through rates to publisher sites by over 40% by 2028? Will any major search engine launch a human only content search mode by 2029? Will the cost per click for Google Ads increase by over 50% from 2025 levels as organic reach collapses by 2029? Will Wikipedia implement mandatory AI detection for all new article submissions by 2028? Will over 20% of US consumers use AI assistants instead of search engines as their primary information source by 2028? Will AI generated product reviews exceed human reviews on Amazon US by volume by 2029? Will any search engine achieve reliable real time AI content detection with over 95% accuracy by 2028? Will US public trust in online information decline by over 20 points in Edelman surveys from 2025 baseline by 2029? Will over 40% of US adults report they no longer trust the authenticity of online content by 2028? Will AI generated content play a documented role in a US stock market manipulation event by 2029? Will AI generated medical misinformation cause a documented public health incident in the US by 2029? Will measurable human withdrawal from AI saturated online platforms exceed 20% user decline on any major service by 2029? Will AI generated political content be cited in a congressional hearing as a national security threat by 2028? Will any US intelligence agency publicly warn about AI content manipulation as a top 5 national security risk by 2028? Will AI content saturation measurably reduce the effectiveness of online public health communication by 2029? Will a documented case of AI generated evidence being used in a US criminal trial emerge by 2028? Will US children under 18 consume more AI generated than human generated educational content by 2029? Will AI generated video exceed 10% of new uploads on YouTube by 2029? Will a fully AI generated film gross over $50M at the US box office by 2030? Will AI generated stock photography exceed human shot stock photography in volume on major platforms by 2028? Will over 30% of US digital advertising creatives be AI generated by 2028? Will any streaming service commission a full AI generated series with over 10M views by 2029? Will deepfake detection tools achieve over 99% accuracy on current generation synthetic video by 2028? Will AI generated product photography replace human photographers for over 30% of US e commerce listings by 2028? Will AI generated music tracks exceed 1M new releases per month on streaming platforms by 2028? Will any major US TV network use AI generated news anchors for regular broadcasts by 2029? Will the US Copyright Office grant copyright protection to AI generated visual works by 2029? US GDP Directly Attributable to AI Systems, 2030 S&P 500 close, year-end 2026 US 10Y Treasury Yield, year-end 2026 Hide other Show labels Reset
AI content AI labor AI productivity Demographics Dollar system Fiscal capacity Growth poles Inflation Markets Other Rates path India as the Third Growth Pole Scenario · 29 European Rearmament Scenario · 31 AI Labor Transition Scenario · 168 Empire by Default Scenario · 38 Warsh Fed Rate Path Thesis map · 100 AI Economic Realization Thesis map · 109 AI Content Dominance Thesis map · 100 US GDP Directly Attributable … Factor map · 1 S&P 500 close, year-end 2026 Factor map · 1 US 10Y Treasury Yield, year-e… Factor map · 1 578 visible of 578 assumptions 10 shared assumption threads Click theses, themes, or assumptions to inspect.
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Shared assumption threads 10 total
Fields that recur across separate live maps. These are the assumptions that can move more than one thesis.
Markets 6 maps 61 components · Thesis map, Scenario +1 more AI Economic Realization, Warsh Fed Rate Path, AI Labor Transition +3 more AI labor 5 maps 77 components · Thesis map, Scenario AI Economic Realization, AI Content Dominance, Warsh Fed Rate Path +2 more AI productivity 5 maps 64 components · Thesis map, Scenario +1 more AI Economic Realization, AI Content Dominance, AI Labor Transition +2 more Rates path 5 maps 61 components · Thesis map, Scenario +1 more AI Economic Realization, Warsh Fed Rate Path, AI Labor Transition +2 more Fiscal capacity 5 maps 17 components · Thesis map, Scenario AI Economic Realization, AI Labor Transition, Empire by Default +2 more Growth poles 4 maps 32 components · Thesis map, Scenario Warsh Fed Rate Path, AI Labor Transition, Empire by Default +1 more Dollar system 3 maps 8 components · Thesis map, Scenario AI Content Dominance, Warsh Fed Rate Path, Empire by Default AI content 2 maps 84 components · Thesis map, Scenario AI Content Dominance, AI Labor Transition Inflation 2 maps 14 components · Thesis map AI Economic Realization, Warsh Fed Rate Path Demographics 2 maps 7 components · Thesis map, Scenario AI Economic Realization, Empire by Default