Question 1

What is Crene?

Accepted Answer

Crene is structured scenario exploration infrastructure. The platform decomposes macro, labor, AI transition, and social cohesion questions into falsifiable components using four frontier AI models (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok). The system produces three product types: clusters (binary decomposition into situations), factors (continuous decomposition into drivers), and scenarios (hybrid decomposition into coherent pathways). Cross model disagreement is the primary signal. Calibrated against 1,161 resolved events with a Brier score of 0.114.

Question 2

How does AI prediction calibration work at Crene?

Accepted Answer

Calibration applies at the consensus layer, not at the underlying model layer. Crene queries four frontier models in isolation, computes a cross model median consensus, and tracks resolution against a tiered source allowlist. Every resolved event becomes a permanent calibration point. Per tier accuracy, per model Brier scores, and per domain accuracy are computed live and published at https://crene.com/methodology.

Question 3

What is a Brier score?

Accepted Answer

A Brier score is the proper scoring rule for probability forecasts on binary outcomes. It is the mean squared error between the forecast probability and the realized outcome (0 or 1). Lower scores indicate better calibration. The no skill baseline is 0.25 (always predicting 0.5); a perfect forecaster scores 0.0. Crene publishes the consensus Brier score and per model Brier scores across the resolved event corpus.

Question 4

Who is Crene for?

Accepted Answer

Crene serves institutional users who need structured uncertainty: macro strategy teams, policy analysts, AI transition researchers, risk teams, and decision systems requiring credible uncertainty quantification. The platform covers AI labor transition, synthetic content dynamics, social cohesion, monetary policy, and equity market structure. Dataset access via public API at https://api-get.crene.com, data marketplaces (Neudata, Eagle Alpha, Monda), and direct licensing.

Question 5

What is the difference between an event, a cluster, and a factor at Crene?

Accepted Answer

Crene has four product types. Events are base binary outcomes with scalar probabilities. Thesis maps decompose binary anchor questions into child situations. Factor maps decompose continuous variables into drivers. Scenarios map long-horizon strategic questions into coherent pathways across live systems including Empire by Default, AI Labor Transition, European Rearmament, and India as the Third Growth Pole.

The assumption layer underneath strategy.

The assumption layer, compressed for mobile.