Live thesis review examples.
Binary investment theses decomposed into live assumptions, disagreement, and rethink triggers.
Warsh Fed Rate Path
A live Fed path thesis mapped into assumptions before macro, PM, or risk review.
AI Economic Realization
A thesis map for whether AI infrastructure converts into measurable economic value.
AI Content Dominance
A thesis map for whether AI generated content becomes structurally dominant.
Continuous variables decomposed into driver distributions and model spread.
US 10Y Treasury Yield
A driver map for the year end 2026 Treasury yield distribution.
S&P 500
A driver map for the year end 2026 S&P 500 distribution.
US GDP from AI by 2030
A driver map for how much US GDP could be directly attributable to AI systems by 2030.
Long horizon theses mapped into coherent pathways and load bearing assumptions.
AI Labor Transition
AI Labor Transformation maps the competing pathways through which AI could reshape US work by 2030. Some pathways expand productive labor through new firms, new occupations, worker augmentation, and broader access to high value tools. Others reduce labor demand through automation, concentration, and productivity gains that do not translate into hiring. Reallocation pathways produce uneven outcomes across sectors, regions, skill levels, and firm sizes. The existing AI Supervised Work anchor event becomes one mechanism inside this broader labor transformation map, not the scenario's full scope.
Empire by Default
Does American economic primacy persist through 2050 not through deliberate strategy, but through the structural failure of alternatives? 38 falsifiable components across demographics, AI, currency architecture, fiscal policy, trade, and market structure. 100 pathways mapping how this resolves.
European Rearmament
European Rearmament maps whether Europe can convert threat perception into durable fiscal, industrial, and military capacity by 2030. The scenario tests whether Europe builds a lasting defense regime across spending, production, procurement coordination, force readiness, and alliance credibility, not whether it issues one-off budget announcements.
India as the Third Growth Pole
India as the Third Growth Pole maps whether India becomes a durable third pole of global growth, capital formation, and technology demand by 2035. The scenario tests whether India can compound domestic demand, infrastructure, manufacturing, digital adoption, capital-market depth, and geopolitical positioning into an institutionally investable growth regime alongside the United States and China.